METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields
Barueri, Brazil
9 Oct 2013
Flyweight
VS
10%
Santos
90%
Cariaso
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 4:31
★ Official Result
Chris CariasowinsKO/TKOR2 · 4:31
def. Iliarde Santos · UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Cariaso
→
Actual result
Cariaso wins
KO/TKO · R2
Pre-fight analysis
Cariaso is a strong favourite at 90% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 13 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Cariaso has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 29 points.
Risk flags
Santos's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Cariaso has a chin rating of 68 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
SantosCariaso
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Santos
Cariaso
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"+
Height
5'3"
67"+
Reach
64"
45
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Santos
Cariaso
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
1.5
14.0
0.0
Performance Avg
39.1
0
Quality of Victory
29
0
Momentum Score
45
Santos
Cariaso
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.0
/ 10
2.5
/ 10
0.0
Style: Pressure
2.6
0.0
Style: Volume
7.9
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
17
Head
37
8
Body
6
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
20Distance32
5Clinch7
0Ground5
Santos
Cariaso
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.0
/ 10
2.1
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.4
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Santos
Cariaso
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
68
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/43 fights
Chin rating based on
13/25 fights
Santos
Cariaso
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
45
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Santos
Cariaso
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
14%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Santos
Cariaso
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.5
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.1
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.6
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.9
SantosCariaso
Strike Zones
Santos
Attacking
25 landedAbsorbing
44 absorbedCariaso
Attacking
44 landedAbsorbing
25 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Santos targets the head (68% of attacks) — Cariaso absorbs 68% of strikes there
🎯Cariaso targets the head (84% of attacks) — Santos absorbs 84% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Santos
RND
Cariaso
0/0R00/0
Santos · Last 3
L · KO · R2
Chris CariasoKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields · 2013-10
L · Dec · R3
Ian McCallDecision
UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung · 2013-08
L · KO · R1
Iuri AlcantaraKO/TKO
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold · 2013-05
Cariaso · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Sergio PettisDecision
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · 2015-10
L · Dec · R3
Henry CejudoDecision
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos · 2015-03
L · Sub · R2
Demetrious JohnsonSubmission
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso · 2014-09
W · Dec · R3
Louis SmolkaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva · 2014-05
W · Dec · R3
Danny MartinezDecision
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2 · 2014-02