UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields
Barueri, Brazil
9 Oct 2013
Flyweight
VS
10%
Santos
90%
Cariaso
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 4:31
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Cariaso
Cariaso is a strong favourite at 90% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 13 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Cariaso has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 29 points.
Striking split: Santos throws more volume but Cariaso connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Santos's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Cariaso has a chin rating of 68 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Santos
Cariaso
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"+
Height
5'3"
67"+
Reach
64"
45
Age
+44
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Santos
Cariaso
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
1.5
14.0
0.0
Performance Avg
39.1
0
Quality of Victory
29
0
Momentum Score
45
Santos
Cariaso
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
1.3
31%
Strike Accuracy
43%
0.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.5
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
17
Head
37
8
Body
6
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
20Distance32
5Clinch7
0Ground5
Santos
Cariaso
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
0.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.1
0.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Santos
Cariaso
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
68
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/43 fights
Chin rating based on
13/25 fights
Santos
Cariaso
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
45
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Santos
Cariaso
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
14%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Santos
Cariaso
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.5
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.1
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.6
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.9
SantosCariaso
Strike Zones
Santos
Attacking
25 landedAbsorbing
44 absorbedCariaso
Attacking
44 landedAbsorbing
25 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Santos targets the head (68% of attacks) — Cariaso absorbs 68% of strikes there
🎯Cariaso targets the head (84% of attacks) — Santos absorbs 84% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Santos
RND
Cariaso
0/0R00/0
Santos · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.3WinLossTrend
Cariaso · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Santos · Last 3
L · KO · R2
Chris CariasoRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields · 2013-10
L · Dec · R3
Ian McCallRating 5.5Decision
UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung · 2013-08
L · KO · R1
Iuri AlcantaraRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold · 2013-05
Cariaso · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Sergio PettisRating 5.5Decision
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · 2015-10
L · Dec · R3
Henry CejudoRating 7Decision
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos · 2015-03
L · Sub · R2
Demetrious JohnsonRating 2.1Submission
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso · 2014-09
W · Dec · R3
Louis SmolkaRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva · 2014-05
W · Dec · R3
Danny MartinezRating 4.5Decision
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2 · 2014-02