METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze
Las Vegas, USA
15 Jan 2022
Lightweight
VS
59%
Brown
41%
Rosa
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
TJ BrownwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Charles Rosa · UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Brown
→
Actual result
Brown wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Brown at 59% vs Rosa at 41% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Brown has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Brown's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Rosa has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
BrownRosa
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Brown
Rosa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
5'9"
72"+
Reach
69"
36+
Age
39
Switch
Stance
Switch
Brown
Rosa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
27.8
19.4
34.0
Performance Avg
36.3
32
Quality of Victory
35
40
Momentum Score
20
Brown
Rosa
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.0
0.8
46%
Strike Accuracy
36%
0.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.8
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
3
0
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
5Distance1
0Clinch1
2Ground1
Brown
Rosa
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
4.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.6
3.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Brown
Rosa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
64
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
8 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/28 fights
Chin rating based on
13/22 fights
Brown
Rosa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
40
20
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Brown
Rosa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
40%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
2
2
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Brown
Rosa
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.8
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.6
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.3
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.0
3.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.0
6.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.6
BrownRosa
Strike Zones
Brown
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedRosa
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Brown targets the head (86% of attacks) — Rosa absorbs 86% of strikes there
🎯Rosa targets the head (100% of attacks) — Brown absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Brown
RND
Rosa
0/0R00/0
Brown · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Rosa · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Brown · Last 5
L · Sub · R3
Darren ElkinsRating 4.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · 2023-10
L · Sub · R2
Bill AlgeoRating 3Submission
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
W · Sub · R3
Erik SilvaRating 5.5Submission
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · 2022-12
L · Dec · R3
Shayilan NuerdanbiekeRating 5.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · 2022-06
W · Dec · R3
Charles RosaRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze · 2022-01
Rosa · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Nathaniel WoodRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · 2022-07
L · Dec · R3
TJ BrownRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze · 2022-01
L · Dec · R3
Damon JacksonRating 5.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez · 2021-10
W · Dec · R3
Justin JaynesRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov · 2021-06
L · Dec · R3
Darrick MinnerRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis · 2021-02