METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Dodson
Portland, USA
1 Oct 2016
Lightweight
VS
22%
Brooks
78%
Oliveira
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 3:30
★ Official Result
Alex OliveirawinsKO/TKOR3 · 3:30
def. Will Brooks · UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Dodson
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Oliveira
→
Actual result
Oliveira wins
KO/TKO · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Oliveira is a strong favourite at 78% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 22 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Oliveira has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.
Brooks has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Brooks's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Oliveira has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
BrooksOliveira
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Brooks
Oliveira
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+5'11"
72"
Reach
+76"
39
Age
+38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Brooks
Oliveira
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
8.4
29.9
25.0
Performance Avg
46.5
25
Quality of Victory
43
17
Momentum Score
100
Brooks
Oliveira
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.6
1.1
57%
Strike Accuracy
54%
0.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.7
0 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
11
0
Body
3
4
Leg
4
RangeRange
4Distance0
0Clinch6
0Ground12
Brooks
Oliveira
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.4
/ 10
3.0
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.1
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.7
0
Submission wins
3
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Brooks
Oliveira
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
2
Sub Losses
5
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/22 fights
Chin rating based on
22/34 fights
Brooks
Oliveira
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
17
100
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Brooks
Oliveira
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
64%
0
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
3
1
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Brooks
Oliveira
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.7
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.7
0.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.0
8.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.0
BrooksOliveira
Strike Zones
Brooks
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedOliveira
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Brooks targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Oliveira absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Oliveira targets the head (61% of attacks) — Brooks absorbs 61% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Brooks
RND
Oliveira
0/0R00/0
Brooks · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.5WinLossTrend
Oliveira · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Brooks · Last 4
L · Sub · R2
Nik LentzRating 2.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tybura · 2017-11
L · Sub · R1
Charles OliveiraRating 2.9Submission
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2 · 2017-04
L · KO · R3
Alex OliveiraRating 4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Dodson · 2016-10
W · Dec · R3
Ross PearsonRating 4.5Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joanna vs. Team Cláudia Finale · 2016-07
Oliveira · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Kevin HollandRating 3.4KO/TKO
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
L · Dec · R3
Niko PriceRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · 2021-10
L · Sub · R1
Randy BrownRating 2.4Submission
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · 2021-04
L · Sub · R1
Shavkat RakhmonovRating 3.6Submission
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · 2020-10
W · Dec · R3
Peter SobottaRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07