UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Brunson 2
Charlotte, USA
27 Jan 2018
Middleweight
VS
33%
Souza
67%
Brunson
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:50
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Brunson
Brunson holds a meaningful edge at 67% per the CFR ratings — but Souza has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 21 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Brunson throws more volume but Souza connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Souza's chin rating of 36 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Brunson has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Souza
Brunson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
6'1"
72"
Reach
+77"
46
Age
+42
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Souza
Brunson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.5
40.2
54.6
Performance Avg
54.7
53
Quality of Victory
47
56
Momentum Score
72
Souza
Brunson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.7
56%
Strike Accuracy
44%
5.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.3
4 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
5
2
Body
2
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
6Distance8
1Clinch0
2Ground0
Souza
Brunson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.0
2.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Souza
Brunson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
36
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
6
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/36 fights
Chin rating based on
21/32 fights
Souza
Brunson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
56
72
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R3
Souza
Brunson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
89%
64%
4
KO / TKO Wins
7
4
Submission Wins
2
1
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Souza
Brunson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.3
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.0
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
4.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.4
7.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.5
2.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.2
SouzaBrunson
Strike Zones
Souza
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedBrunson
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Souza targets the head (78% of attacks) — Brunson absorbs 78% of strikes there
🎯Brunson targets the head (63% of attacks) — Souza absorbs 63% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Souza
RND
Brunson
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Souza · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Brunson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Souza · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Andre MunizRating 2.4Submission
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · 2021-05
L · KO · R1
Kevin HollandRating 2.1KO/TKO
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno · 2020-12
L · Dec · R5
Jan BlachowiczRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare · 2019-11
L · Dec · R5
Jack HermanssonRating 6.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Hermansson · 2019-04
W · KO · R3
Chris WeidmanRating 6.3KO/TKO
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis · 2018-11
Brunson · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Dricus Du PlessisRating 4.7KO/TKO
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · 2023-03
L · KO · R2
Jared CannonierRating 3.7KO/TKO
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 · 2022-02
W · Sub · R3
Darren TillRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Till · 2021-09
W · Dec · R5
Kevin HollandRating 5.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Holland · 2021-03
W · KO · R3
Edmen ShahbazyanRating 6.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Shahbazyan · 2020-08