METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Gastelum
Las Vegas, USA
21 Aug 2021
Lightweight
VS
50%
Guida
50%
Madsen
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Mark MadsenwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Clay Guida · UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Gastelum
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Guida
→
Actual result
Madsen wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Guida at 50% vs Madsen at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Risk flags
Guida's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Madsen has a chin rating of 66 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
GuidaMadsen
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Guida
Madsen
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'8"
70"
Reach
+72"
44
Age
+41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Guida
Madsen
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
39.7
39.0
40.7
Performance Avg
46.9
35
Quality of Victory
34
78
Momentum Score
79
Guida
Madsen
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.1
/ 10
3.8
/ 10
4.2
Style: Pressure
3.8
5.9
Style: Volume
7.3
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
29
2
Body
2
16
Leg
4
RangeRange
29Distance33
2Clinch2
0Ground0
Guida
Madsen
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.7
/ 10
1.8
/ 10
2.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.3
2.8
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
5
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Guida
Madsen
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
66
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
8
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
14 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
37/60 fights
Chin rating based on
6/14 fights
Guida
Madsen
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
79
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Guida
Madsen
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
39%
25%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
5
Submission Wins
0
11
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Guida
Madsen
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.8
3.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.8
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
2.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.8
5.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.3
GuidaMadsen
Strike Zones
Guida
Attacking
31 landedAbsorbing
35 absorbedMadsen
Attacking
35 landedAbsorbing
31 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Guida targets the legs (52% of attacks) — Madsen absorbs 52% of strikes there
🎯Madsen targets the head (83% of attacks) — Guida absorbs 83% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Guida
RND
Madsen
0/0R00/0
Guida · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Chase HooperSubmission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Joaquim SilvaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
L · Dec · R3
Rafa GarciaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
W · Dec · R3
Scott HoltzmanDecision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · Sub · R1
Claudio PuellesSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · 2022-04
Madsen · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Jared GordonKO/TKO
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11
L · Sub · R3
Grant DawsonSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos · 2022-11
W · Dec · R3
Vinc PichelDecision
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · 2022-04
W · Dec · R3
Clay GuidaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Gastelum · 2021-08
W · Dec · R3
Austin HubbardDecision
UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero · 2020-03