UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Gastelum
Las Vegas, USA
21 Aug 2021
Lightweight
VS
53%
Guida
47%
Madsen
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Clay
Clay Guida
"The Carpenter"
38 – 22
5'7"70" reachOrthodox44 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 44
MM
Mark Madsen
"The Olympian"
12 – 2
Well-Rounded2-fight slide41 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'8"
CFR 39

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Guida

This is a genuine toss-up — Guida at 53% vs Madsen at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Madsen has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Guida's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Madsen has a chin rating of 66 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Guida
Madsen
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'8"
70"
Reach
+72"
44
Age
+41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Guida
Madsen
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.2
39.0
40.7
Performance Avg
46.9
35
Quality of Victory
34
78
Momentum Score
79
Guida
Madsen
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.8
36%
Strike Accuracy
50%
2.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.8
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
29
2
Body
2
16
Leg
4
RangeRange
29Distance33
2Clinch2
0Ground0
Guida
Madsen
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.8
2.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Guida
Madsen
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
66
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
8
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
14 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
37/60 fights
Chin rating based on
6/14 fights
Guida
Madsen
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
79
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Guida
Madsen
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
39%
25%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
5
Submission Wins
0
11
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Guida
Madsen
Striking2.1 / 3.8Volume5.9 / 7.3Grappling3.7 / 1.8Wrestling2.6 / 1.3Submission2.8 / 0.0Pressure4.2 / 3.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.8
3.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.8
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
2.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.8
5.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.3
Guida
Strike Zones
Madsen
Guida
Attacking
13HEAD2BODY16LEGS31 landed
Absorbing
29HEAD2BODY4LEGS35 absorbed
Madsen
Attacking
29HEAD2BODY4LEGS35 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD2BODY16LEGS31 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Guida targets the legs (52% of attacks) — Madsen absorbs 52% of strikes there
🎯Madsen targets the head (83% of attacks) — Guida absorbs 83% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Guida
RND
Madsen
0/0R00/0

Guida · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0105.2W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.0L5.0W4.5W4.5W5.5L2.8L5.2W5.7W5.2W4.5W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.0L4.5W2.8L4.5W1.5L5.4L4.5W5.0W2.9L4.5W1.9L6.2L4.6W5.7L5.3W2.4L4.5W6.3L6.1L2.3L2006-102010-032015-042021-082024-12
WinLossTrend

Madsen · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0105.0W4.5W5.0W4.7W5.5L1.9L2019-092020-032021-082022-042022-112023-11
WinLossTrend

Guida · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Chase HooperRating 2.3
Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Joaquim SilvaRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
L · Dec · R3
Rafa GarciaRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
W · Dec · R3
Scott HoltzmanRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · Sub · R1
Claudio PuellesRating 2.4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · 2022-04

Madsen · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Jared GordonRating 1.9
KO/TKO
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11
L · Sub · R3
Grant DawsonRating 5.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos · 2022-11
W · Dec · R3
Vinc PichelRating 4.7
Decision
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · 2022-04
W · Dec · R3
Clay GuidaRating 5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Gastelum · 2021-08
W · Dec · R3
Austin HubbardRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero · 2020-03

News & Media

Clay Guida · Mark Madsen
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