UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov
Las Vegas, USA
6 Feb 2021
Featherweight
VS
97%
Osbourne
3%
Rivera
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 0:26
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Osbourne
Osbourne is a strong favourite at 97% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 50 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Osbourne has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 45 points.
Osbourne has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Osbourne's chin rating of 16 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Rivera has a chin rating of 42 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Osbourne
Rivera
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'10"
73"+
Reach
72"
34
Age
+31
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Osbourne
Rivera
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
51.3
1.8
43.7
Performance Avg
0.0
45
Quality of Victory
0
87
Momentum Score
0
Osbourne
Rivera
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.1
41%
Strike Accuracy
26%
6.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
0
0
Body
1
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
1Distance2
0Clinch0
4Ground0
Osbourne
Rivera
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.6
1.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Osbourne
Rivera
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
16
42
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
3
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/22 fights
Chin rating based on
4/16 fights
Osbourne
Rivera
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
87
0
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Osbourne
Rivera
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
0%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Osbourne
Rivera
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
1.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
OsbourneRivera
Strike Zones
Osbourne
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedRivera
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Osbourne targets the head (100% of attacks) — Rivera absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Rivera targets the body (50% of attacks) — Osbourne absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Osbourne
RND
Rivera
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Osbourne · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Rivera · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.1WinLossTrend
Osbourne · Last 5
Upcoming
Cody DurdenUFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
Upcoming
Alibi IdirisUFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Steve ErcegRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08
W · KO · R2
Luis GuruleRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · 2025-04
L · Dec · R3
Ronaldo RodriguezRating 6.7Decision
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09
Rivera · Last 4
L · Sub · R1
Zhalgas ZhumagulovRating 1.5Submission
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · 2021-07
L · KO · R1
Ode OsbourneRating 2.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov · 2021-02
L · Dec · R3
Francisco FigueiredoRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny · 2021-01
L · KO · R2
Tyson NamRating 3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09