UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
3 Jun 2017
Middleweight
VS
52%
Junior
48%
Spicely
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 3:49
AC
Antonio Carlos Junior
"Cara de Sapato"
11 – 5
6'2"79" reachOrthodox36 yrs3-fight slideSubmission Hunter
CFR 19
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Junior
This is a genuine toss-up — Junior at 52% vs Spicely at 48% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Spicely has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Spicely has a chin rating of 30 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Junior
Spicely
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
6'1"
79"+
Reach
73"
36+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Junior
Spicely
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.1
17.3
55.3
Performance Avg
43.8
53
Quality of Victory
54
41
Momentum Score
52
Junior
Spicely
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.6
1.7
43%
Strike Accuracy
48%
1.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.6
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
5
1
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance1
0Clinch0
2Ground4
Junior
Spicely
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
6.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
8.0
4.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Junior
Spicely
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
70
30
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/16 fights
Chin rating based on
7/18 fights
Junior
Spicely
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
41
52
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
Junior
Spicely
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
71%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
5
Submission Wins
2
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Junior
Spicely
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.6
6.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
4.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
7.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
6.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.9
3.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.6
JuniorSpicely
Strike Zones
Junior
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedSpicely
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Junior targets the head (50% of attacks) — Spicely absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Spicely targets the head (100% of attacks) — Junior absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Junior
RND
Spicely
0/0R00/0
Junior · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Spicely · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.8WinLossTrend
Junior · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Brad TavaresRating 5.5Decision
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor · 2021-01
L · Dec · R3
Uriah HallRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje · 2019-09
L · Dec · R3
Ian HeinischRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee · 2019-05
W · Sub · R1
Tim BoetschRating 5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje · 2018-04
W · Sub · R1
Jack MarshmanRating 5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida · 2017-10
Spicely · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Deron WinnRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. The Korean Zombie · 2019-06
L · KO · R2
Darren StewartRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Till · 2018-05
L · KO · R2
Gerald MeerschaertRating 3.8KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: A New World Champion Finale · 2017-12
L · Sub · R2
Antonio Carlos JuniorRating 2.8Submission
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway · 2017-06
W · Sub · R1
Alessio Di ChiricoRating 5Submission
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena · 2017-01