UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen
Vancouver, Canada
18 Oct 2025
Lightweight
VS
49%
Nelson
51%
Frevola
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Frevola
This is a genuine toss-up — Nelson at 49% vs Frevola at 51% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Striking split: Frevola throws more volume but Nelson connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Nelson's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Frevola has a chin rating of 8 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Nelson
Frevola
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'9"
71"
Reach
71"
35
Age
35
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Nelson
Frevola
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
36.8
38.6
41.6
Performance Avg
45.8
39
Quality of Victory
46
36
Momentum Score
20
Nelson
Frevola
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.9
47%
Strike Accuracy
46%
4.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.9
2 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
3
4
Body
3
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
7Distance6
4Clinch1
0Ground0
Nelson
Frevola
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.0
1.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Nelson
Frevola
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
8
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
4
KO/TKO Losses
4
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.8 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/24 fights
Chin rating based on
12/17 fights
Nelson
Frevola
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
36
20
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Nelson
Frevola
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
60%
2
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Nelson
Frevola
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.9
1.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.0
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.6
5.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.1
NelsonFrevola
Strike Zones
Nelson
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedFrevola
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Nelson targets the head (55% of attacks) — Frevola absorbs 55% of strikes there
🎯Frevola targets the head (43% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 43% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Nelson
RND
Frevola
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Nelson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Frevola · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Nelson · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Terrance McKinneyRating 3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Matt FrevolaRating 4.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10
L · KO · R1
Steve GarciaRating 3.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
W · KO · R1
Bill AlgeoRating 5.2KO/TKO
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W · Dec · R3
Fernando PadillaRating 5.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · 2023-09
Frevola · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Kyle NelsonRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10
L · KO · R3
Fares ZiamRating 5.2KO/TKO
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L · KO · R1
Benoit Saint DenisRating 3.3KO/TKO
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W · KO · R1
Drew DoberRating 6.2KO/TKO
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W · KO · R1
Ottman AzaitarRating 5.8KO/TKO
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