UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrandt 2
Los Angeles, USA
4 Aug 2018
Middleweight
VS
41%
Santos
59%
Holland
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Holland
This is a genuine toss-up — Santos at 41% vs Holland at 59% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Santos throws more volume but Holland connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Santos's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Holland has a chin rating of 6 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Santos
Holland
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
+6'3"
76"
Reach
+81"
42
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Santos
Holland
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
32.2
47.0
54.0
Performance Avg
49.3
51
Quality of Victory
44
91
Momentum Score
51
Santos
Holland
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
1.2
51%
Strike Accuracy
52%
9.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.3
11 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
21
Head
3
4
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
8Distance3
0Clinch0
17Ground1
Santos
Holland
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
0.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.8
0.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Santos
Holland
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
6
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
3
Sub Losses
3
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/33 fights
Chin rating based on
29/44 fights
Santos
Holland
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
91
51
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R4
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Santos
Holland
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
79%
69%
11
KO / TKO Wins
5
0
Submission Wins
6
3
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Santos
Holland
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.3
0.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.8
0.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.8
7.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.5
2.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.6
SantosHolland
Strike Zones
Santos
Attacking
25 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedHolland
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
25 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Santos targets the head (84% of attacks) — Holland absorbs 84% of strikes there
🎯Holland targets the head (75% of attacks) — Santos absorbs 75% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Santos
RND
Holland
0/0R00/0
Santos · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Holland · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Santos · Last 5
L · KO · R4
Jamahal HillRating 4.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill · 2022-08
L · Dec · R5
Magomed AnkalaevRating 7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · 2022-03
W · Dec · R5
Johnny WalkerRating 5.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · 2021-10
L · Dec · R3
Aleksandar RakicRating 5.6Decision
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya · 2021-03
L · Sub · R3
Glover TeixeiraRating 3.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Teixeira · 2020-11
Holland · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Randy BrownRating 5.4Decision
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Mike MalottRating 7.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Daniel RodriguezRating 6.4Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
W · Sub · R2
Vicente LuqueRating 6.7Submission
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Gunnar NelsonRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03