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All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2
Mexico City, Mexico
24 Feb 2024
Featherweight
VS
52%
Rodriguez
48%
Ortega
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 0:58
Yair
Yair Rodriguez
"El Pantera"
21 – 6
5'11"71" reachOrthodox33 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 66
Brian
Brian Ortega
"T-City"
16 – 5
Pressure Fighter2-fight slide35 yrsSwitch69" reach5'8"
CFR 62
★ Official Result
Brian OrtegawinsSubmissionR3 · 0:58
def. Yair Rodriguez · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Rodriguez
→
Actual result
Ortega wins
Submission · R3
Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Rodriguez at 52% vs Ortega at 48% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Rodriguez has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Rodriguez's chin rating of 62 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
RodriguezOrtega
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Rodriguez
Ortega
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'8"
71"+
Reach
69"
33+
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Rodriguez
Ortega
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
66.4
62.1
60.2
Performance Avg
53.7
51
Quality of Victory
48
100
Momentum Score
80
Rodriguez
Ortega
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.5
1.5
48%
Strike Accuracy
40%
5.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.0
4 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
0
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance0
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Rodriguez
Ortega
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.3
1.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Rodriguez
Ortega
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
62
70
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/27 fights
Chin rating based on
14/21 fights
Rodriguez
Ortega
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
80
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · KO · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
Rodriguez
Ortega
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
46%
88%
4
KO / TKO Wins
3
1
Submission Wins
4
6
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Rodriguez
Ortega
Striking5.1 / 5.0Volume5.8 / 2.2Grappling2.0 / 4.3Wrestling1.4 / 3.0Submission0.9 / 5.0Pressure5.4 / 8.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.0
2.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.3
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
0.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
5.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
5.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.2
Rodriguez
Strike Zones
Ortega
Rodriguez
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 absorbed
Ortega
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Rodriguez targets the head (100% of attacks) — Ortega absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Rodriguez
RND
Ortega
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Rodriguez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.5W4.5W5.4W5.9W4.7W5.1W4.8L6.0W5.0W6.6L6.4W5.2W4.2L4.1L4.5W2014-112016-082019-102023-072025-04
WinLossTrend

Ortega · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.8
0105.5W5.5W6.0W6.3W5.7W5.0W6.2L5.0W7.0L3.1L6.8W6.8L6.5L2015-062017-122021-092025-08
WinLossTrend

Rodriguez · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Patricio PitbullRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
L · Sub · R3
Brian OrtegaRating 4.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02
L · KO · R3
Alexander VolkanovskiRating 4.2
KO/TKO
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · 2023-07
W · Sub · R2
Josh EmmettRating 5.2
Submission
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · 2023-02
W · KO · R1
Brian OrtegaRating 6.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · 2022-07

Ortega · Last 5

L · Dec · R5
Aljamain SterlingRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Diego LopesRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09
W · Sub · R3
Yair RodriguezRating 6.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02
L · KO · R1
Yair RodriguezRating 3.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · 2022-07
L · Dec · R5
Alexander VolkanovskiRating 7
Decision
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · 2021-09

News & Media

Yair Rodriguez · Brian Ortega
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