METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev
Las Vegas, USA
12 Mar 2022
Welterweight
VS
57%
Semelsberger
43%
Fletcher
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Matthew SemelsbergerwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. AJ Fletcher · UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Semelsberger
→
Actual result
Semelsberger wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Semelsberger at 57% vs Fletcher at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Fletcher has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Striking split: Semelsberger throws more volume but Fletcher connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Semelsberger's chin rating of 48 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
SemelsbergerFletcher
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Semelsberger
Fletcher
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'10"
75"+
Reach
67"
33
Age
+29
Switch
Stance
Switch
Semelsberger
Fletcher
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.1
34.7
41.6
Performance Avg
39.7
39
Quality of Victory
50
84
Momentum Score
29
Semelsberger
Fletcher
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.2
0.6
43%
Strike Accuracy
49%
4.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
8
2
Body
1
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
7Distance12
2Clinch0
5Ground0
Semelsberger
Fletcher
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.7
1.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
8.0
1.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Semelsberger
Fletcher
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
48
84
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/19 fights
Chin rating based on
4/13 fights
Semelsberger
Fletcher
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
84
29
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Semelsberger
Fletcher
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
100%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
1
3
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Semelsberger
Fletcher
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
1.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
5.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
SemelsbergerFletcher
Strike Zones
Semelsberger
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedFletcher
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Semelsberger targets the head (86% of attacks) — Fletcher absorbs 86% of strikes there
🎯Fletcher targets the head (67% of attacks) — Semelsberger absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Semelsberger
RND
Fletcher
0/0R00/0
Semelsberger · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Fletcher · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Semelsberger · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Charles RadtkeRating 2.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Preston ParsonsRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · 2024-01
L · KO · R3
Uros MedicRating 5.8KO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
L · Dec · R3
Jeremiah WellsRating 6.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes · 2023-04
W · Dec · R3
Jake MatthewsRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · 2022-12
Fletcher · Last 4
L · Sub · R2
Bryan BattleRating 4.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot · 2023-09
W · Sub · R2
Themba GorimboRating 5.7Submission
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield · 2023-02
L · Dec · R3
Ange LoosaRating 5.5Decision
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · 2022-08
L · Dec · R3
Matthew SemelsbergerRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · 2022-03