UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev
Las Vegas, USA
12 Mar 2022
Welterweight
VS
57%
Semelsberger
43%
Fletcher
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Matthew
Matthew Semelsberger
"Semi The Jedi"
11 – 8
6'1"75" reachSwitch33 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 45
AF
AJ Fletcher
"The Ghost"
10 – 3
Submission Hunter29 yrsSwitch67" reach5'10"
CFR 35

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Semelsberger

This is a genuine toss-up — Semelsberger at 57% vs Fletcher at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Fletcher has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.

Striking split: Semelsberger throws more volume but Fletcher connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Semelsberger's chin rating of 48 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Semelsberger
Fletcher
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'10"
75"+
Reach
67"
33
Age
+29
Switch
Stance
Switch
Semelsberger
Fletcher
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.1
34.7
41.6
Performance Avg
39.7
39
Quality of Victory
50
84
Momentum Score
29
Semelsberger
Fletcher
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
0.6
43%
Strike Accuracy
49%
4.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
8
2
Body
1
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
7Distance12
2Clinch0
5Ground0
Semelsberger
Fletcher
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.7
1.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
8.0
1.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Semelsberger
Fletcher
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
48
84
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/19 fights
Chin rating based on
4/13 fights
Semelsberger
Fletcher
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
84
29
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Semelsberger
Fletcher
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
100%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
1
3
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Semelsberger
Fletcher
Striking4.9 / 0.5Volume5.7 / 0.5Grappling1.4 / 8.0Wrestling1.0 / 5.6Submission0.0 / 10.0Pressure4.2 / 7.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
1.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
5.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
Semelsberger
Strike Zones
Fletcher
Semelsberger
Attacking
12HEAD2BODY0LEGS14 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD1BODY3LEGS12 absorbed
Fletcher
Attacking
8HEAD1BODY3LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
12HEAD2BODY0LEGS14 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Semelsberger targets the head (86% of attacks) — Fletcher absorbs 86% of strikes there
🎯Fletcher targets the head (67% of attacks) — Semelsberger absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Semelsberger
RND
Fletcher
0/0R00/0

Semelsberger · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0104.5W5.0W6.9L5.0W4.5W5.5L5.5W6.9L5.8L5.5L2.7L2020-082021-092022-122024-012024-11
WinLossTrend

Fletcher · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0106.0L5.5L5.7W4.5L2022-032022-082023-022023-09
WinLossTrend

Semelsberger · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Charles RadtkeRating 2.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Preston ParsonsRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · 2024-01
L · KO · R3
Uros MedicRating 5.8
KO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
L · Dec · R3
Jeremiah WellsRating 6.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes · 2023-04
W · Dec · R3
Jake MatthewsRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · 2022-12

Fletcher · Last 4

L · Sub · R2
Bryan BattleRating 4.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot · 2023-09
W · Sub · R2
Themba GorimboRating 5.7
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield · 2023-02
L · Dec · R3
Ange LoosaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · 2022-08
L · Dec · R3
Matthew SemelsbergerRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · 2022-03

News & Media

Matthew Semelsberger · AJ Fletcher
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