UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
Seattle, USA
8 Dec 2012
Light Heavyweight
VS
59%
Rua
41%
Gustafsson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
MR
Mauricio Rua
"Shogun"
27 – 14
6'1"76" reachOrthodox44 yrs3-fight slideStriker
CFR 35
AG
Alexander Gustafsson
"The Mauler"
18 – 8
Well-Rounded4-fight slide39 yrsOrthodox79" reach6'5"
CFR 25

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Rua

This is a genuine toss-up — Rua at 59% vs Gustafsson at 41% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Gustafsson throws more volume but Rua connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Rua's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Gustafsson has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Rua
Gustafsson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'5"
76"
Reach
+79"
44
Age
+39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Rua
Gustafsson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
35.0
24.8
49.7
Performance Avg
50.3
51
Quality of Victory
47
46
Momentum Score
39
Rua
Gustafsson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.2
55%
Strike Accuracy
44%
8.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.1
8 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
26
4
Body
4
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
8Distance24
2Clinch3
0Ground4
Rua
Gustafsson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.7
/ 10
2.3
/ 10
0.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.6
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.0
0
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Rua
Gustafsson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
6
KO/TKO Losses
3
2
Sub Losses
3
Avg R1.8 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/41 fights
Chin rating based on
18/26 fights
Rua
Gustafsson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
46
39
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Upcoming
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R4
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R5
Rua
Gustafsson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
73%
70%
8
KO / TKO Wins
5
0
Submission Wins
2
3
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Rua
Gustafsson
Striking8.2 / 6.1Volume3.1 / 3.5Grappling0.7 / 2.3Wrestling0.5 / 1.6Submission0.0 / 2.0Pressure6.5 / 6.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.1
0.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.3
0.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
6.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.6
3.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.5
Rua
Strike Zones
Gustafsson
Rua
Attacking
6HEAD4BODY0LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
26HEAD4BODY1LEGS31 absorbed
Gustafsson
Attacking
26HEAD4BODY1LEGS31 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD4BODY0LEGS10 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Rua targets the head (60% of attacks) — Gustafsson absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Gustafsson targets the head (84% of attacks) — Rua absorbs 84% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Rua
RND
Gustafsson
0/0R00/0

Rua · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0104.0L5.5W5.0W5.5L5.0W4.5L5.0W5.5L5.4W5.5L1.5L5.0W2.8L2.1L4.5W4.5W5.5W2.7L6.5W4.5W3.5L6.1L1.5L2007-092011-082014-032018-122023-01
WinLossTrend

Gustafsson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0105.0W1.5L5.2W5.0W5.2W5.0W4.5W4.5W7.3L5.1W1.5L5.5L5.1W5.9W4.5L4.5L1.5L2.7L2009-112011-122015-012019-062022-07
WinLossTrend

Rua · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Ihor PotieriaRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · 2023-01
L · Dec · R3
Ovince Saint PreuxRating 6.1
Decision
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
L · KO · R2
Paul CraigRating 3.5
KO/TKO
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez · 2020-11
W · Dec · R3
Rogerio NogueiraRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
Upcoming
Paul Craig
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare · 2019-11

Gustafsson · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Nikita KrylovRating 2.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · 2022-07
L · Sub · R1
Fabricio WerdumRating 1.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
L · Sub · R4
Anthony SmithRating 4.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith · 2019-06
L · KO · R3
Jon JonesRating 4.5
KO/TKO
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 · 2018-12
W · KO · R5
Glover TeixeiraRating 5.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Teixeira · 2017-05

News & Media

Mauricio Rua · Alexander Gustafsson
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