METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
Seattle, USA
8 Dec 2012
Light Heavyweight
VS
59%
Rua
41%
Gustafsson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Alexander GustafssonwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Mauricio Rua · UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Rua
→
Actual result
Gustafsson wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Rua at 59% vs Gustafsson at 41% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Gustafsson throws more volume but Rua connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Rua's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Gustafsson has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
RuaGustafsson
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Rua
Gustafsson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'5"
76"
Reach
+79"
44
Age
+39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Rua
Gustafsson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
35.0
24.8
49.7
Performance Avg
50.3
51
Quality of Victory
47
46
Momentum Score
39
Rua
Gustafsson
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.1
1.2
55%
Strike Accuracy
44%
8.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.1
8 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
26
4
Body
4
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
8Distance24
2Clinch3
0Ground4
Rua
Gustafsson
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.7
/ 10
2.3
/ 10
0.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.6
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.0
0
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Rua
Gustafsson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
6
KO/TKO Losses
3
2
Sub Losses
3
Avg R1.8 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/41 fights
Chin rating based on
18/26 fights
Rua
Gustafsson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
46
39
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Upcoming
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R4
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R5
Rua
Gustafsson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
73%
70%
8
KO / TKO Wins
5
0
Submission Wins
2
3
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Rua
Gustafsson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.1
0.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.3
0.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
6.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.6
3.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.5
RuaGustafsson
Strike Zones
Rua
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
31 absorbedGustafsson
Attacking
31 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Rua targets the head (60% of attacks) — Gustafsson absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Gustafsson targets the head (84% of attacks) — Rua absorbs 84% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Rua
RND
Gustafsson
0/0R00/0
Rua · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Gustafsson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Rua · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Ihor PotieriaRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · 2023-01
L · Dec · R3
Ovince Saint PreuxRating 6.1Decision
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
L · KO · R2
Paul CraigRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez · 2020-11
W · Dec · R3
Rogerio NogueiraRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
Upcoming
Paul CraigDecision
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare · 2019-11
Gustafsson · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Nikita KrylovRating 2.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · 2022-07
L · Sub · R1
Fabricio WerdumRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
L · Sub · R4
Anthony SmithRating 4.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith · 2019-06
L · KO · R3
Jon JonesRating 4.5KO/TKO
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 · 2018-12
W · KO · R5
Glover TeixeiraRating 5.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Teixeira · 2017-05