UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
Las Vegas, USA
12 Dec 2015
Featherweight
VS
56%
Holloway
44%
Stephens
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Holloway
This is a genuine toss-up — Holloway at 56% vs Stephens at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Holloway has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Holloway's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Stephens has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Holloway
Stephens
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'9"
69"
Reach
+71"
34+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Holloway
Stephens
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
56.2
45.0
56.8
Performance Avg
41.1
47
Quality of Victory
40
63
Momentum Score
76
Holloway
Stephens
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.2
1.3
52%
Strike Accuracy
42%
5.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.5
10 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
21
Head
10
3
Body
6
2
Leg
5
RangeRange
16Distance20
1Clinch1
9Ground0
Holloway
Stephens
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.1
1.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Holloway
Stephens
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
4
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
33/36 fights
Chin rating based on
36/52 fights
Holloway
Stephens
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
63
76
Current form
7-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R5
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Holloway
Stephens
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
52%
47%
10
KO / TKO Wins
7
2
Submission Wins
0
11
Decision Wins
8
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Holloway
Stephens
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.5
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.1
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
4.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.6
HollowayStephens
Strike Zones
Holloway
Attacking
26 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedStephens
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
26 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Holloway targets the head (81% of attacks) — Stephens absorbs 81% of strikes there
🎯Stephens targets the head (48% of attacks) — Holloway absorbs 48% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Holloway
RND
Stephens
0/0R00/0
Holloway · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.6WinLossTrend
Stephens · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Holloway · Last 5
Upcoming
Conor McGregorUFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
L · Dec · R5
Charles OliveiraRating 6.9Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Dec · R5
Dustin PoirierRating 5.8Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · KO · R3
Ilia TopuriaRating 5.1KO/TKO
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
W · KO · R5
Justin GaethjeRating 7.1KO/TKO
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
Stephens · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
King GreenRating 2.2Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Mason JonesRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
L · Sub · R1
Mateusz GamrotRating 2.6Submission
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Moises · 2021-07
L · KO · R2
Calvin KattarRating 3.2KO/TKO
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · Dec · R3
Yair RodriguezRating 7.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weidman · 2019-10