METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
Las Vegas, USA
12 Dec 2015
Featherweight
VS
56%
Holloway
44%
Stephens
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Max HollowaywinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Jeremy Stephens · UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Holloway
→
Actual result
Holloway wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Holloway at 56% vs Stephens at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Holloway's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Stephens has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
HollowayStephens
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Holloway
Stephens
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'9"
69"
Reach
+71"
34+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Holloway
Stephens
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
56.9
45.0
57.7
Performance Avg
41.1
48
Quality of Victory
40
63
Momentum Score
76
Holloway
Stephens
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
6.0
/ 10
5.5
/ 10
6.0
Style: Pressure
4.5
4.8
Style: Volume
4.6
11 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
7 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
21
Head
10
3
Body
6
2
Leg
5
RangeRange
16Distance20
1Clinch1
9Ground0
Holloway
Stephens
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.7
/ 10
1.1
/ 10
1.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
0.8
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
2
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Holloway
Stephens
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
4
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
33/36 fights
Chin rating based on
36/52 fights
Holloway
Stephens
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
63
76
Current form
7-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R5
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Holloway
Stephens
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
54%
47%
11
KO / TKO Wins
7
2
Submission Wins
0
11
Decision Wins
8
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Holloway
Stephens
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.5
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.1
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
4.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.6
HollowayStephens
Strike Zones
Holloway
Attacking
26 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedStephens
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
26 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Holloway targets the head (81% of attacks) — Stephens absorbs 81% of strikes there
🎯Stephens targets the head (48% of attacks) — Holloway absorbs 48% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Holloway
RND
Stephens
0/0R00/0
Holloway · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Conor McGregorKO/TKO
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
L · Dec · R5
Charles OliveiraDecision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Dec · R5
Dustin PoirierDecision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · KO · R3
Ilia TopuriaKO/TKO
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
W · KO · R5
Justin GaethjeKO/TKO
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
Stephens · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
King GreenSubmission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Mason JonesDecision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
L · Sub · R1
Mateusz GamrotSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Moises · 2021-07
L · KO · R2
Calvin KattarKO/TKO
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · Dec · R3
Yair RodriguezDecision
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weidman · 2019-10