METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
Las Vegas, USA
12 Dec 2015
Featherweight
VS
56%
Holloway
44%
Stephens
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Max
Max Holloway
"Blessed"
27 – 9
5'11"69" reachOrthodox34 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 56
Jeremy
Jeremy Stephens
"Lil' Heathen"
29 – 23
Well-Rounded7-fight slide40 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'9"
CFR 45
★ Official Result
Max HollowaywinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Jeremy Stephens · UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Holloway
→
Actual result
Holloway wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Holloway at 56% vs Stephens at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Holloway has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Holloway's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Stephens has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
HollowayStephens
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Holloway
Stephens
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'9"
69"
Reach
+71"
34+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Holloway
Stephens
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
56.2
45.0
56.8
Performance Avg
41.1
47
Quality of Victory
40
63
Momentum Score
76
Holloway
Stephens
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.2
1.3
52%
Strike Accuracy
42%
5.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.5
10 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
21
Head
10
3
Body
6
2
Leg
5
RangeRange
16Distance20
1Clinch1
9Ground0
Holloway
Stephens
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.1
1.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Holloway
Stephens
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
4
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
33/36 fights
Chin rating based on
36/52 fights
Holloway
Stephens
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
63
76
Current form
7-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R5
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Holloway
Stephens
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
52%
47%
10
KO / TKO Wins
7
2
Submission Wins
0
11
Decision Wins
8

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Holloway
Stephens
Striking5.8 / 5.5Volume4.9 / 4.6Grappling1.7 / 1.1Wrestling1.2 / 0.8Submission0.9 / 0.0Pressure5.8 / 4.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.5
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.1
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
4.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.6
Holloway
Strike Zones
Stephens
Holloway
Attacking
21HEAD3BODY2LEGS26 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD6BODY5LEGS21 absorbed
Stephens
Attacking
10HEAD6BODY5LEGS21 landed
Absorbing
21HEAD3BODY2LEGS26 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Holloway targets the head (81% of attacks) — Stephens absorbs 81% of strikes there
🎯Stephens targets the head (48% of attacks) — Holloway absorbs 48% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Holloway
RND
Stephens
0/0R00/0

Holloway · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.6
0102.8L4.5W5.2W4.5W5.5L7.5L5.2W6.2W5.5W5.0W4.5W6.0W6.4W5.0W4.5W5.2W5.7W5.7W5.7W6.8L4.5W7.0L7.0L5.0W6.1W7.0L5.9W5.7W7.1W5.1L5.8W6.9L2012-022014-082017-062021-112026-03
WinLossTrend

Stephens · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0102.8L4.5W5.2W5.5L5.7W2.8L5.5L4.0W4.5W5.5L5.5W4.5W5.5L5.5L1.5L4.5W5.0W5.0W6.0L6.9L5.5W6.6L4.5W5.5L6.3L4.5W6.9W5.2W2.0L5.5L7.1L3.2L2.6L6.5L2.2L2007-052010-092014-062018-022026-05
WinLossTrend

Holloway · Last 5

Upcoming
Conor McGregor
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
L · Dec · R5
Charles OliveiraRating 6.9
Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Dec · R5
Dustin PoirierRating 5.8
Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · KO · R3
Ilia TopuriaRating 5.1
KO/TKO
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
W · KO · R5
Justin GaethjeRating 7.1
KO/TKO
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04

Stephens · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
King GreenRating 2.2
Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Mason JonesRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
L · Sub · R1
Mateusz GamrotRating 2.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Moises · 2021-07
L · KO · R2
Calvin KattarRating 3.2
KO/TKO
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · Dec · R3
Yair RodriguezRating 7.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weidman · 2019-10

News & Media

Max Holloway · Jeremy Stephens
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