Allan Nascimento vs Mitch Raposo — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi

Las Vegas, USA

20 Jun 2026

Flyweight

63%

Nascimento

37%

Raposo

Win Probability

Decision

Round 3 · 5:00

Allan Nascimento

"Puro Osso"

22 – 6

5'8"69" reachOrthodox34 yrsWell-Rounded

CFR 62

Mitch Raposo

10 – 3

Well-Rounded2-fight win streak27 yrsSwitch64" reach5'5"

CFR 37

★ Official Result

Mitch RaposowinsDecisionR3 · 5:00

def. Allan Nascimento · UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Nascimento

Allan Nascimento by decision. He controls the fight on the mat and earns a clear…

→

Actual result

Raposo wins

Decision · R3

Pre-fight analysis

A grappling-first contender meets a durable UFC rookie with something to prove.

Allan Nascimento arrives riding perfect recent form (momentum 100) and with an undefeated professional record that has made him one of the more talked-about names in the flyweight division. His grappling-heavy game plan has stifled opponents at lower levels and he will look to drag Raposo into deep water on the mat. Mitch Raposo is an interesting case — durable (chin 96) and capable of extending …

Nascimento intel

Nascimento is 22-6 with peak momentum and a grappling style that should dominate Raposo. He has the tools to make this fight ugly quickly.

Raposo intel

Raposo is tough and willing, but his zero finish rate and modest CFR suggest he will be outclassed by a ranked flyweight. He needs a standup war to have any chance.

Key angles

Can Nascimento secure early takedowns?

If Raposo can keep it standing and land volume, can he frustrate the grappler?

Risk flags

Raposo's toughness could absorb early takedowns and wear Nascimento down

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

NascimentoRaposo

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Nascimento

Raposo

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'8"+

Height

5'5"

69"+

Reach

64"

Age

+27

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

Nascimento

Raposo

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

62.4

37.2

49.7

Performance Avg

35.0

Quality of Victory

100

Momentum Score

Nascimento

Raposo

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

1.3

/ 10

1.0

/ 10

5.5

Style: Pressure

1.5

5.3

Style: Volume

9.0

0 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

0 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

12Distance4

5Clinch0

7Ground0

Nascimento

Raposo

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

5.2

/ 10

2.4

/ 10

3.6

Wrestling Style (/10)

1.7

5.0

Submission Style (/10)

0.0

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Nascimento

Raposo

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

Never stopped

Verdict

Never stopped

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

6/28 fights

Chin rating based on

4/13 fights

Nascimento

Raposo

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

100

Current form

2-fight 🔥 win streak

L · Dec · R3

W · Sub · R2

W · Dec · R3

W · Sub · R1

W · Dec · R3

Last 5

W · Dec · R3

L · Dec · R3

Nascimento

Raposo

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

50%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Nascimento

Raposo

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

1.3

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

1.0

5.2

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

2.4

3.6

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

1.7

5.0

Submission

Submission attack frequency

0.0

5.5

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

1.5

5.3

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

9.0

Nascimento

Strike Zones

Raposo

Nascimento

Attacking

24 landed

Absorbing

4 absorbed

Raposo

Attacking

4 landed

Absorbing

24 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Nascimento targets the head (67% of attacks) — Raposo absorbs 67% of strikes there

🎯Raposo targets the head (100% of attacks) — Nascimento absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Nascimento

RND

Raposo

0/0R00/0

0/0R10/0

Nascimento · Last 5

L · Dec · R3

Mitch Raposo

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06

W · Sub · R2

Cody Durden

Submission

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W · Dec · R3

Jafel Filho

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber · 2025-05

W · Sub · R1

Carlos Hernandez

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov · 2023-01

W · Dec · R3

Jake Hadley

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · 2022-05

Raposo · Last 4

W · Dec · R3

Allan Nascimento

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06

W · Dec · R3

Azat Maksum

Decision

UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10

L · Dec · R3

Sumudaerji

Decision

UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04

L · Dec · R3

Andre Lima

Decision

UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06

News & Media

Allan Nascimento · Mitch Raposo

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