UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2
Las Vegas, USA
4 Mar 2017
Featherweight
VS
30%
Bektic
70%
Elkins
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 3:19
MB
Mirsad Bektic
13 – 4
5'8"70" reachOrthodox35 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 19
Darren
Darren Elkins
"The Damage"
29 – 12
Well-Rounded42 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'10"
CFR 45

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Elkins

Elkins is a strong favourite at 70% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 26 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Elkins has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Bektic's chin rating of 42 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Elkins has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Bektic
Elkins
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'10"
70"
Reach
+71"
35+
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Bektic
Elkins
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.0
44.7
48.4
Performance Avg
46.3
41
Quality of Victory
35
84
Momentum Score
66
Bektic
Elkins
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
1.3
32%
Strike Accuracy
38%
4.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.4
2 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
6
0
Body
4
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
5Distance3
0Clinch4
0Ground5
Bektic
Elkins
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.8
1.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Bektic
Elkins
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
42
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
4
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/17 fights
Chin rating based on
30/41 fights
Bektic
Elkins
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
84
66
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Bektic
Elkins
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
37%
2
KO / TKO Wins
4
1
Submission Wins
3
3
Decision Wins
12

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Bektic
Elkins
Striking4.5 / 3.4Volume5.2 / 6.3Grappling2.5 / 2.8Wrestling1.8 / 1.9Submission1.7 / 1.6Pressure5.3 / 4.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.4
2.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.8
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.6
5.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
5.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
Bektic
Strike Zones
Elkins
Bektic
Attacking
5HEAD0BODY0LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD4BODY2LEGS12 absorbed
Elkins
Attacking
6HEAD4BODY2LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD0BODY0LEGS5 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Bektic targets the head (100% of attacks) — Elkins absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Elkins targets the head (50% of attacks) — Bektic absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Bektic
RND
Elkins
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Bektic · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0104.5W4.5W5.2W5.0W4.5L5.0W4.5W1.6L6.2L4.3L2014-042016-102018-062020-09
WinLossTrend

Elkins · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.0W2.9L4.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W5.0W1.5L4.5W6.0L4.5W5.5L4.5W4.5W4.5W5.5W4.5W5.3W7.0L4.0L5.5L6.2L5.5W5.2W2.0L4.5W6.0L5.5W5.4W1.7L2010-032013-082017-072021-122025-04
WinLossTrend

Bektic · Last 5

L · Sub · R3
Damon JacksonRating 4.3
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09
L · Dec · R3
Dan IgeRating 6.2
Decision
UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes · 2020-02
L · KO · R1
Josh EmmettRating 1.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: De Randamie vs. Ladd · 2019-07
W · Dec · R3
Ricardo LamasRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2 · 2018-06
W · KO · R1
Godofredo PepeyRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Brunson 2 · 2018-01

Elkins · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Julian ErosaRating 1.7
KO/TKO
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · Dec · R3
Daniel PinedaRating 5.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10
W · Sub · R3
TJ BrownRating 5.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · 2023-10
L · Dec · R3
Jonathan PearceRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
W · Dec · R3
Tristan ConnellyRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera · 2022-04

News & Media

Mirsad Bektic · Darren Elkins
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