METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2
Las Vegas, USA
4 Mar 2017
Featherweight
VS
30%
Bektic
70%
Elkins
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 3:19
★ Official Result
Darren ElkinswinsKO/TKOR3 · 3:19
def. Mirsad Bektic · UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Elkins
→
Actual result
Elkins wins
KO/TKO · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Elkins is a strong favourite at 70% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 26 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Elkins has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Bektic's chin rating of 42 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Elkins has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
BekticElkins
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Bektic
Elkins
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'10"
70"
Reach
+71"
35+
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Bektic
Elkins
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.0
44.7
48.4
Performance Avg
46.3
41
Quality of Victory
35
84
Momentum Score
66
Bektic
Elkins
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.8
1.3
32%
Strike Accuracy
38%
4.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.4
2 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
6
0
Body
4
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
5Distance3
0Clinch4
0Ground5
Bektic
Elkins
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.8
1.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Bektic
Elkins
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
42
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
4
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/17 fights
Chin rating based on
30/41 fights
Bektic
Elkins
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
84
66
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Bektic
Elkins
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
37%
2
KO / TKO Wins
4
1
Submission Wins
3
3
Decision Wins
12
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Bektic
Elkins
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.4
2.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.8
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.6
5.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
5.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
BekticElkins
Strike Zones
Bektic
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedElkins
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Bektic targets the head (100% of attacks) — Elkins absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Elkins targets the head (50% of attacks) — Bektic absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Bektic
RND
Elkins
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Bektic · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Elkins · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Bektic · Last 5
L · Sub · R3
Damon JacksonRating 4.3Submission
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09
L · Dec · R3
Dan IgeRating 6.2Decision
UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes · 2020-02
L · KO · R1
Josh EmmettRating 1.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: De Randamie vs. Ladd · 2019-07
W · Dec · R3
Ricardo LamasRating 4.5Decision
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2 · 2018-06
W · KO · R1
Godofredo PepeyRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Brunson 2 · 2018-01
Elkins · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Julian ErosaRating 1.7KO/TKO
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · Dec · R3
Daniel PinedaRating 5.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10
W · Sub · R3
TJ BrownRating 5.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · 2023-10
L · Dec · R3
Jonathan PearceRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
W · Dec · R3
Tristan ConnellyRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera · 2022-04