UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Hermansson
Sunrise, USA
27 Apr 2019
Lightweight
VS
72%
Miller
28%
Gonzalez
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:12
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Miller
Miller is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 27 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Gonzalez throws more volume but Miller connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Miller's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Gonzalez has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Miller
Gonzalez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+6'2"
71"
Reach
+74"
42
Age
+36
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Miller
Gonzalez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
43.5
17.0
51.5
Performance Avg
42.4
45
Quality of Victory
54
28
Momentum Score
43
Miller
Gonzalez
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.8
41%
Strike Accuracy
34%
3.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
6 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
5
0
Body
0
2
Leg
5
RangeRange
6Distance10
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Miller
Gonzalez
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.0
Sub Attempts / fight
—
4.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
8.0
3.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Miller
Gonzalez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
54
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
18 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
47/58 fights
Chin rating based on
4/16 fights
Miller
Gonzalez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
28
43
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
Miller
Gonzalez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
71%
100%
6
KO / TKO Wins
0
14
Submission Wins
1
8
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Miller
Gonzalez
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
4.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
3.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
6.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
3.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
MillerGonzalez
Strike Zones
Miller
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedGonzalez
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Miller targets the head (67% of attacks) — Gonzalez absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Gonzalez targets the head (50% of attacks) — Miller absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Miller
RND
Gonzalez
0/0R00/0
Miller · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Gonzalez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.1WinLossTrend
Miller · Last 5
W · Sub · R1
Jared GordonRating 5.4Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Chase HooperRating 6.3Decision
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · Sub · R1
Damon JacksonRating 5.3Submission
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
King GreenRating 6.2Decision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
W · Sub · R3
Gabriel BenitezRating 5.7Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · 2024-01
Gonzalez · Last 4
L · Sub · R1
Jim MillerRating 1.9Submission
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Hermansson · 2019-04
L · Sub · R2
Gregor GillespieRating 2.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. Branch · 2017-09
W · Sub · R1
JC CottrellRating 5Submission
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena · 2017-01
L · KO · R1
Drew DoberRating 2.7KO/TKO
UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem · 2016-09