UFC Fight Night: Saint Preux vs. Okami
Saitama, Japan
22 Sept 2017
Flyweight
VS
46%
Formiga
54%
Sasaki
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:30
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Sasaki
This is a genuine toss-up — Formiga at 46% vs Sasaki at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Sasaki has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 17 points.
Sasaki has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Formiga's chin rating of 6 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Sasaki has a chin rating of 40 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Formiga
Sasaki
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"
Height
+5'10"
67"
Reach
+71"
41
Age
+36
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Formiga
Sasaki
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
14.9
17.8
42.7
Performance Avg
48.2
34
Quality of Victory
51
64
Momentum Score
46
Formiga
Sasaki
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.6
1.2
40%
Strike Accuracy
43%
1.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.9
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
6
1
Body
9
2
Leg
1
RangeRange
9Distance14
0Clinch2
0Ground0
Formiga
Sasaki
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.5
4.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
8.0
3.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Formiga
Sasaki
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
6
40
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
3
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/31 fights
Chin rating based on
9/27 fights
Formiga
Sasaki
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
64
46
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
Formiga
Sasaki
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
4
6
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Formiga
Sasaki
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.9
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
4.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.3
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.9
FormigaSasaki
Strike Zones
Formiga
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedSasaki
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Formiga targets the head (67% of attacks) — Sasaki absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Sasaki targets the body (56% of attacks) — Formiga absorbs 56% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Formiga
RND
Sasaki
0/0R00/0
Formiga · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Sasaki · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.1WinLossTrend
Formiga · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Alex PerezRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer · 2020-06
L · Dec · R3
Brandon MorenoRating 6.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira · 2020-03
L · KO · R2
Joseph BenavidezRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Dos Santos · 2019-06
W · Dec · R3
Deiveson FigueiredoRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis · 2019-03
W · Dec · R3
Sergio PettisRating 4.5Decision
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · 2018-10
Sasaki · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Alexandre PantojaRating 2.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponzinibbio · 2018-11
W · Sub · R2
Jenel LausaRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edwards · 2018-06
L · Sub · R1
Jussier FormigaRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Saint Preux vs. Okami · 2017-09
W · Sub · R2
Justin ScogginsRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Correia · 2017-06
L · Dec · R3
Wilson ReisRating 5.5Decision
UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie · 2017-02