METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy
London, United Kingdom
21 Mar 2026
Featherweight
VS
43%
Wood
57%
Keita
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Nathaniel WoodwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Losene Keita · UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Keita
→
Actual result
Wood wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Wood at 43% vs Keita at 57% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 17 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Keita has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 29 points.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
WoodKeita
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Wood
Keita
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'7"
69"
Reach
+72"
33
Age
+28
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Wood
Keita
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
49.3
65.8
48.1
Performance Avg
56.0
31
Quality of Victory
60
60
Momentum Score
71
Wood
Keita
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.5
/ 10
10.0
/ 10
4.1
Style: Pressure
8.5
7.3
Style: Volume
1.0
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
14
0
Body
3
15
Leg
1
RangeRange
31Distance18
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Wood
Keita
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.9
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
2.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
2.7
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
3
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Wood
Keita
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
72
98
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
11 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/29 fights
Chin rating based on
2/18 fights
Wood
Keita
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
71
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Wood
Keita
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
27%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
3
Submission Wins
0
8
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Wood
Keita
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
3.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
2.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.5
7.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.0
WoodKeita
Strike Zones
Wood
Attacking
31 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedKeita
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
31 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Wood targets the head (52% of attacks) — Keita absorbs 52% of strikes there
🎯Keita targets the head (78% of attacks) — Wood absorbs 78% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Wood
RND
Keita
0/0R00/0
Wood · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Pavel AndruscaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse · 2026-09
W · Dec · R3
Losene KeitaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Jose DelgadoDecision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
W · Dec · R3
Morgan CharriereDecision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Daniel PinedaDecision
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
Keita · Last 2
W · KO · R1
Muhammad NaimovKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse · 2026-09
L · Dec · R3
Nathaniel WoodDecision
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · 2026-03