UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy
London, United Kingdom
21 Mar 2026
Featherweight
VS
87%
Wood
13%
Keita
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Nathaniel
Nathaniel Wood
"The Last Kingsman"
23 – 6
5'6"69" reachOrthodox33 yrs4-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 51
LK
Losene Keita
"Black Panther"
16 – 2
Well-Rounded28 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'7"
CFR 8

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Wood

Wood is a strong favourite at 87% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 43 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Wood has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 31 points.

Wood has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Wood
Keita
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'7"
69"
Reach
+72"
33
Age
+28
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Wood
Keita
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
50.6
7.8
50.2
Performance Avg
0.0
31
Quality of Victory
0
60
Momentum Score
0
Wood
Keita
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
1.2
55%
Strike Accuracy
35%
1.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
14
0
Body
3
15
Leg
1
RangeRange
31Distance18
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Wood
Keita
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
2.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Wood
Keita
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
98
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
10 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/29 fights
Chin rating based on
1/18 fights
Wood
Keita
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
0
4-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Wood
Keita
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
27%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
0
8
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Wood
Keita
Striking1.6 / 0.0Volume7.4 / 0.0Grappling3.9 / 0.0Wrestling2.8 / 0.0Submission2.7 / 0.0Pressure4.3 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
3.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
2.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
7.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Wood
Strike Zones
Keita
Wood
Attacking
16HEAD0BODY15LEGS31 landed
Absorbing
14HEAD3BODY1LEGS18 absorbed
Keita
Attacking
14HEAD3BODY1LEGS18 landed
Absorbing
16HEAD0BODY15LEGS31 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Wood targets the head (52% of attacks) — Keita absorbs 52% of strikes there
🎯Keita targets the head (78% of attacks) — Wood absorbs 78% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Wood
RND
Keita
0/0R00/0

Wood · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.2W5.5W5.2W4.0L5.3W5.5L4.5W5.3W5.2W6.7L5.4W5.7W6.0W4.5W2018-062020-072023-072025-102026-03
WinLossTrend

Wood · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Losene KeitaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Jose DelgadoRating 6
Decision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
W · Dec · R3
Morgan CharriereRating 5.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Daniel PinedaRating 5.4
Decision
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
L · Dec · R3
Muhammad NaimovRating 6.7
Decision
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10

Keita · Last 1

L · Dec · R3
Nathaniel WoodRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · 2026-03

News & Media

Nathaniel Wood · Losene Keita
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