METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2
Las Vegas, USA
29 Jun 2024
Heavyweight
VS
47%
Arlovski
53%
Buday
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Martin BudaywinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Andrei Arlovski · UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Buday
→
Actual result
Buday wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Arlovski at 47% vs Buday at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Arlovski has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.
Buday has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Arlovski's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
ArlovskiBuday
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Arlovski
Buday
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
+6'4"
77"
Reach
77"
47
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Arlovski
Buday
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
49.1
54.5
50.5
Performance Avg
52.5
47
Quality of Victory
29
94
Momentum Score
78
Arlovski
Buday
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.5
1.6
47%
Strike Accuracy
53%
5.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.8
9 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
11
14
Body
13
7
Leg
0
RangeRange
23Distance11
10Clinch13
0Ground0
Arlovski
Buday
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.2
1.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Arlovski
Buday
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
78
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
8
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.8 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
42/58 fights
Chin rating based on
8/18 fights
Arlovski
Buday
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
94
78
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R1
Arlovski
Buday
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
48%
14%
9
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
1
12
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Arlovski
Buday
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.8
1.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.2
0.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.4
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.6
5.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.6
ArlovskiBuday
Strike Zones
Arlovski
Attacking
33 landedAbsorbing
24 absorbedBuday
Attacking
24 landedAbsorbing
33 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Arlovski targets the body (42% of attacks) — Buday absorbs 42% of strikes there
🎯Buday targets the body (54% of attacks) — Arlovski absorbs 54% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Arlovski
RND
Buday
0/0R00/0
Arlovski · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Buday · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Arlovski · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Martin BudayRating 6.5Decision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
L · Dec · R3
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 7Decision
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L · KO · R2
Don'Tale MayesRating 3.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · 2023-06
L · Sub · R1
Marcos Rogerio de LimaRating 2.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · 2022-10
W · Dec · R3
Jake CollierRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera · 2022-04
Buday · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Marcus BuchechaRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · 2025-07
W · Dec · R3
Uran SatybaldievRating 5.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · 2025-04
W · Dec · R3
Andrei ArlovskiRating 5.2Decision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
L · KO · R2
Shamil GazievRating 3.4KO/TKO
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
W · Sub · R1
Josh ParisianRating 5.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos · 2023-08