Sergei Pavlovich vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov

Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

1 Feb 2025

Heavyweight

55%

Pavlovich

45%

Rozenstruik

Win Probability

Decision

Round 3 · 5:00

Sergei Pavlovich

20 – 3

6'3"84" reachSouthpaw34 yrs3-fight win streakKnockout Artist

CFR 64

Jairzinho Rozenstruik

"Bigi Boy"

15 – 6

Knockout Artist38 yrsOrthodox78" reach6'2"

CFR 51

★ Official Result

Sergei PavlovichwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00

def. Jairzinho Rozenstruik · UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Pavlovich

→

Actual result

Pavlovich wins

Decision · R3

Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Pavlovich at 55% vs Rozenstruik at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Risk flags

Pavlovich's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Rozenstruik has a chin rating of 38 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

PavlovichRozenstruik

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Pavlovich

Rozenstruik

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

6'3"+

Height

6'2"

84"+

Reach

78"

34+

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

Pavlovich

Rozenstruik

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

63.5

51.3

62.0

Performance Avg

56.7

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

Pavlovich

Rozenstruik

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

9.3

/ 10

10.0

/ 10

7.7

Style: Pressure

8.0

3.3

Style: Volume

2.1

7 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

8 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

11Distance4

0Clinch0

0Ground0

Pavlovich

Rozenstruik

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

🥊

Pure striking matchup

Neither fighter has significant grappling in their history

Submission wins

Pavlovich

Rozenstruik

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

KO risk

Verdict

KO risk

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R1.0 stoppage

KO round context

Avg R1.0 stoppage

4 fights ago

Last KO loss

5 fights ago

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

12/23 fights

Chin rating based on

15/21 fights

Pavlovich

Rozenstruik

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

3-fight 🔥 win streak

Current form

W · KO · R1

W · Dec · R3

L · Dec · R3

L · KO · R1

Last 5

L · Dec · R3

W · Dec · R3

W · KO · R4

L · Sub · R1

W · KO · R1

Pavlovich

Rozenstruik

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

78%

89%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Pavlovich

Rozenstruik

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

9.3

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

10.0

0.5

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

0.3

0.4

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

0.2

0.0

Submission

Submission attack frequency

0.0

7.7

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

8.0

3.3

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

2.1

Pavlovich

Strike Zones

Rozenstruik

Pavlovich

Attacking

11 landed

Absorbing

4 absorbed

Rozenstruik

Attacking

4 landed

Absorbing

11 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Pavlovich targets the head (91% of attacks) — Rozenstruik absorbs 91% of strikes there

🎯Rozenstruik targets the head (100% of attacks) — Pavlovich absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Pavlovich

RND

Rozenstruik

0/0R00/0

Pavlovich · Last 5

W · KO · R1

Tallison Teixeira

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05

W · Dec · R3

Waldo Cortes Acosta

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08

W · Dec · R3

Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · 2025-02

L · Dec · R3

Alexander Volkov

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06

L · KO · R1

Tom Aspinall

KO/TKO

UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11

Rozenstruik · Last 5

L · Dec · R3

Sergei Pavlovich

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · 2025-02

W · Dec · R3

Tai Tuivasa

Decision

UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08

W · KO · R4

Shamil Gaziev

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev · 2024-03

L · Sub · R1

Jailton Almeida

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · 2023-05

W · KO · R1

Chris Daukaus

KO/TKO

UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · 2022-12

News & Media

Sergei Pavlovich · Jairzinho Rozenstruik

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