★ Championship Bout · Light Heavyweight
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
Las Vegas, USA
10 Dec 2022
Light Heavyweight
VS
41%
Blachowicz
59%
Ankalaev
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Ankalaev
This is a genuine toss-up — Blachowicz at 41% vs Ankalaev at 59% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 20 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Ankalaev has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Blachowicz's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Ankalaev has a chin rating of 66 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Blachowicz
Ankalaev
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
+6'3"
78"+
Reach
75"
43
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Blachowicz
Ankalaev
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
46.4
66.0
53.0
Performance Avg
59.9
48
Quality of Victory
43
20
Momentum Score
100
Blachowicz
Ankalaev
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.3
51%
Strike Accuracy
59%
5.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.7
5 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
18
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance1
0Clinch0
0Ground17
Blachowicz
Ankalaev
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.3
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
1.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
1.7
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
2
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Blachowicz
Ankalaev
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
66
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
11 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/40 fights
Chin rating based on
16/23 fights
Blachowicz
Ankalaev
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
W · KO · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Upcoming
Blachowicz
Ankalaev
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
58%
50%
5
KO / TKO Wins
6
2
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Blachowicz
Ankalaev
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.7
2.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.1
4.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.7
BlachowiczAnkalaev
Strike Zones
Blachowicz
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedAnkalaev
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Ankalaev targets the head (100% of attacks) — Blachowicz absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Blachowicz
RND
Ankalaev
0/0R00/0
Blachowicz · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Ankalaev · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Blachowicz · Last 5
Upcoming
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L · Dec · R3
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L · Dec · R3
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UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
Upcoming
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UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · 2022-12
W · KO · R3
Aleksandar RakicRating 5.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · 2022-05
Ankalaev · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Alex PereiraRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
W · Dec · R5
Alex PereiraRating 6.6Decision
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Aleksandar RakicRating 4.6Decision
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W · KO · R2
Johnny WalkerRating 5.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · 2024-01
Upcoming
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