UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura
London, United Kingdom
22 Jul 2023
Featherweight
VS
61%
Murphy
39%
Culibao
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Murphy
Murphy holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Culibao has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 24 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Murphy has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Murphy
Culibao
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'10"
73"
Reach
73"
34
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Murphy
Culibao
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
65.5
42.0
57.7
Performance Avg
37.0
36
Quality of Victory
33
100
Momentum Score
75
Murphy
Culibao
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.1
52%
Strike Accuracy
46%
5.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.9
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
23
Head
4
6
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance4
6Clinch1
21Ground0
Murphy
Culibao
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.6
/ 10
4.3
/ 10
1.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
3.3
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Murphy
Culibao
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
72
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
7 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/18 fights
Chin rating based on
8/15 fights
Murphy
Culibao
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
75
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Murphy
Culibao
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
33%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
1
6
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Murphy
Culibao
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.9
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.3
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.6
7.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.2
MurphyCulibao
Strike Zones
Murphy
Attacking
29 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedCulibao
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
29 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Murphy targets the head (79% of attacks) — Culibao absorbs 79% of strikes there
🎯Culibao targets the head (80% of attacks) — Murphy absorbs 80% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Murphy
RND
Culibao
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Murphy · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Culibao · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Murphy · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
Movsar EvloevRating 6.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · 2026-03
W · KO · R1
Aaron PicoRating 5.1KO/TKO
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
W · Dec · R5
Josh EmmettRating 4.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · 2025-04
W · Dec · R3
Dan IgeRating 5.2Decision
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
W · Dec · R5
Edson BarbozaRating 5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · 2024-05
Culibao · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Ricardo RamosRating 5.6Decision
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Danny SilvaRating 6.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura · 2024-03
L · Dec · R3
Lerone MurphyRating 7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · 2023-07
W · Sub · R2
Melsik BaghdasaryanRating 5.8Submission
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · 2023-02
W · Dec · R3
SeungWoo ChoiRating 4.7Decision
UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka · 2022-06