UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev
New York City, USA
15 Nov 2025
Welterweight
VS
42%
Edwards
58%
Prates
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 1:28
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Prates
This is a genuine toss-up — Edwards at 42% vs Prates at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 22 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Prates has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 23 points.
Prates has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Edwards's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Edwards
Prates
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
6'1"
74"
Reach
+78"
34
Age
+32
Southpaw
Stance
Switch
Edwards
Prates
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
57.4
79.6
51.1
Performance Avg
70.6
36
Quality of Victory
59
95
Momentum Score
100
Edwards
Prates
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
2.7
56%
Strike Accuracy
58%
3.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
3 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
6
0
Body
1
3
Leg
5
RangeRange
5Distance11
0Clinch0
0Ground1
Edwards
Prates
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
1.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Edwards
Prates
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
98
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20/28 fights
Chin rating based on
8/31 fights
Edwards
Prates
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
95
100
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R4
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R1
Edwards
Prates
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
100%
3
KO / TKO Wins
7
1
Submission Wins
0
10
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Edwards
Prates
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
2.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
9.6
7.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.8
EdwardsPrates
Strike Zones
Edwards
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedPrates
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Edwards targets the legs (60% of attacks) — Prates absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Prates targets the head (50% of attacks) — Edwards absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Edwards
RND
Prates
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Edwards · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Prates · QOF Timeline
Avg: 6.2WinLossTrend
Edwards · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Carlos PratesRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
L · Sub · R4
Sean BradyRating 4.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
L · Dec · R5
Belal MuhammadRating 6.6Decision
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
W · Dec · R5
Colby CovingtonRating 5.8Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
W · Dec · R5
Kamaru UsmanRating 5.6Decision
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03
Prates · Last 5
W · KO · R3
Jack Della MaddalenaRating 6.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05
W · KO · R2
Leon EdwardsRating 6.4KO/TKO
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
W · KO · R1
Geoff NealRating 6KO/TKO
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
L · Dec · R5
Ian Machado GarryRating 7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
W · KO · R1
Neil MagnyRating 5.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · 2024-11