UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3
Sao Paulo, Brazil
7 Nov 2015
Bantamweight
VS
55%
Almeida
45%
Birchak
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:24
TA
Thomas Almeida
"Thominhas"
22 – 5
5'7"70" reachSouthpaw34 yrs4-fight slideKnockout Artist
CFR 18
AB
Anthony Birchak
"El Toro"
16 – 8
Well-Rounded2-fight slide40 yrsOrthodox69" reach5'8"
CFR 15

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Almeida

This is a genuine toss-up — Almeida at 55% vs Birchak at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Birchak throws more volume but Almeida connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Almeida's chin rating of 30 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Birchak has a chin rating of 32 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Almeida
Birchak
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'8"
70"+
Reach
69"
34+
Age
40
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Almeida
Birchak
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.4
14.8
50.6
Performance Avg
38.8
51
Quality of Victory
43
59
Momentum Score
53
Almeida
Birchak
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.3
2.5
45%
Strike Accuracy
34%
9.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.7
4 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
19
Head
16
4
Body
3
1
Leg
8
RangeRange
18Distance24
6Clinch3
0Ground0
Almeida
Birchak
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.5
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
0.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Almeida
Birchak
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
30
32
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/27 fights
Chin rating based on
6/24 fights
Almeida
Birchak
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
53
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Almeida
Birchak
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
50%
4
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Almeida
Birchak
Striking9.0 / 5.7Volume2.6 / 4.7Grappling0.5 / 1.2Wrestling0.3 / 0.8Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure7.1 / 4.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.7
0.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
0.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
2.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.7
Almeida
Strike Zones
Birchak
Almeida
Attacking
19HEAD4BODY1LEGS24 landed
Absorbing
16HEAD3BODY8LEGS27 absorbed
Birchak
Attacking
16HEAD3BODY8LEGS27 landed
Absorbing
19HEAD4BODY1LEGS24 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Almeida targets the head (79% of attacks) — Birchak absorbs 79% of strikes there
🎯Birchak targets the head (59% of attacks) — Almeida absorbs 59% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Almeida
RND
Birchak
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Almeida · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0104.5W5.0W5.2W5.0W2.6L5.2W5.5L4.0L6.0L5.5L2014-112015-112017-072021-03
WinLossTrend

Birchak · QOF Timeline

Avg: 2.8
0101.5L5.0W1.5L4.5W1.5L2.8L2014-122015-062015-112016-072020-112021-04
WinLossTrend

Almeida · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Sean O'MalleyRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou · 2021-03
L · Dec · R3
Jonathan MartinezRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. The Korean Zombie · 2020-10
L · KO · R2
Rob FontRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou · 2018-01
L · Dec · R3
Jimmie RiveraRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum · 2017-07
W · KO · R2
Albert MoralesRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira · 2016-11

Birchak · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Tony GravelyRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Gastelum · 2021-04
L · Sub · R1
Gustavo LopezRating 1.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Teixeira · 2020-11
W · Dec · R3
Dileno LopesRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez · 2016-07
L · KO · R1
Thomas AlmeidaRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3 · 2015-11
W · KO · R1
Joe SotoRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Henderson · 2015-06

News & Media

Thomas Almeida · Anthony Birchak
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