UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2
Las Vegas, USA
6 Dec 2025
Middleweight
VS
43%
Vettori
57%
Ferreira
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Marvin
Marvin Vettori
"The Italian Dream"
19 – 10
6'0"74" reachSouthpaw32 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 50
Brunno
Brunno Ferreira
"The Hulk"
15 – 3
Pressure Fighter33 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'10"
CFR 66

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Ferreira

This is a genuine toss-up — Vettori at 43% vs Ferreira at 57% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Ferreira has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 20 points.

Ferreira has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Ferreira has a chin rating of 44 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Vettori
Ferreira
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'10"
74"+
Reach
72"
32+
Age
33
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Vettori
Ferreira
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
50.2
66.1
40.0
Performance Avg
57.5
31
Quality of Victory
51
84
Momentum Score
100
Vettori
Ferreira
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.9
48%
Strike Accuracy
50%
1.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.3
0 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
29
Head
21
0
Body
1
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
30Distance21
0Clinch0
0Ground1
Vettori
Ferreira
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
3.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.1
2.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Vettori
Ferreira
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
84
44
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/29 fights
Chin rating based on
10/18 fights
Vettori
Ferreira
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
84
100
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
Upcoming
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R2
Vettori
Ferreira
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
22%
83%
0
KO / TKO Wins
3
2
Submission Wins
2
7
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Vettori
Ferreira
Striking1.1 / 6.3Volume7.3 / 2.7Grappling3.6 / 3.1Wrestling2.5 / 2.1Submission2.2 / 3.3Pressure3.1 / 7.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.3
3.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.1
2.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.1
2.2
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
3.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
7.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.7
Vettori
Strike Zones
Ferreira
Vettori
Attacking
29HEAD0BODY1LEGS30 landed
Absorbing
21HEAD1BODY0LEGS22 absorbed
Ferreira
Attacking
21HEAD1BODY0LEGS22 landed
Absorbing
29HEAD0BODY1LEGS30 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Vettori targets the head (97% of attacks) — Ferreira absorbs 97% of strikes there
🎯Ferreira targets the head (95% of attacks) — Vettori absorbs 95% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Vettori
RND
Ferreira
0/0R00/0

Vettori · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.8
0105.0W5.5L4.5W6.9L4.5W4.5W5.0W5.4W5.1W6.9L5.5W6.4L5.9W6.5L6.9L6.8L7.1L2016-082019-102021-102025-072025-12
WinLossTrend

Ferreira · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0106.6W3.4L5.0W5.0W4.8L5.2W6.0W5.3W3.1L2023-012024-062025-072026-03
WinLossTrend

Vettori · Last 5

Upcoming
Ismail Naurdiev
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · 2026-06
L · Dec · R3
Brunno FerreiraRating 7.1
Decision
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
L · Dec · R3
Brendan AllenRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · Dec · R5
Roman DolidzeRating 6.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · 2025-03
L · Dec · R5
Jared CannonierRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier · 2023-06

Ferreira · Last 5

Upcoming
Ikram Aliskerov
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · 2026-06
L · KO · R1
Gregory RodriguesRating 3.1
KO/TKO
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Marvin VettoriRating 5.3
Decision
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · Sub · R1
Jackson McVeyRating 6
Submission
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
W · Sub · R2
Armen PetrosyanRating 5.2
Submission
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03

News & Media

Marvin Vettori · Brunno Ferreira
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