UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
Denver, USA
28 Jan 2017
Middleweight
VS
42%
Marquardt
58%
Alvey
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
NM
Nate Marquardt
"The Great"
35 – 19
6'0"74" reachOrthodox47 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 17
SA
Sam Alvey
"Smile'N"
33 – 18
Well-Rounded8-fight slide40 yrsSouthpaw75" reach6'2"
CFR 23

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Alvey

This is a genuine toss-up — Marquardt at 42% vs Alvey at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Alvey throws more volume but Marquardt connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Marquardt's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Alvey has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Marquardt
Alvey
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'2"
74"
Reach
+75"
47
Age
+40
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Marquardt
Alvey
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.8
22.9
48.6
Performance Avg
44.3
46
Quality of Victory
45
59
Momentum Score
43
Marquardt
Alvey
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.5
52%
Strike Accuracy
46%
5.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.9
6 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
3
1
Body
0
0
Leg
5
RangeRange
6Distance7
0Clinch0
0Ground1
Marquardt
Alvey
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.8
1.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Marquardt
Alvey
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
5
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.2 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
25/54 fights
Chin rating based on
24/51 fights
Marquardt
Alvey
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
43
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
8-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
Upcoming
Marquardt
Alvey
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
69%
60%
6
KO / TKO Wins
5
3
Submission Wins
1
4
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Marquardt
Alvey
Striking5.7 / 5.9Volume3.5 / 4.1Grappling2.6 / 1.8Wrestling1.8 / 1.2Submission2.3 / 1.0Pressure6.4 / 5.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.9
2.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.8
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
2.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.0
6.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
3.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.1
Marquardt
Strike Zones
Alvey
Marquardt
Attacking
5HEAD1BODY0LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD0BODY5LEGS8 absorbed
Alvey
Attacking
3HEAD0BODY5LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD1BODY0LEGS6 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Marquardt targets the head (83% of attacks) — Alvey absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Alvey targets the legs (63% of attacks) — Marquardt absorbs 63% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Marquardt
RND
Alvey
0/0R00/0

Marquardt · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0104.5W4.5W5.2W4.5W1.5L5.2W5.5L5.0W5.5W5.0W5.5L5.0W5.5L4.5W1.5L1.5L5.0W5.5L3.1L5.2W1.5L5.2W5.5L5.5L5.5L2005-082008-092013-032016-102017-11
WinLossTrend

Alvey · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.5L5.0W5.0W5.0W1.8L5.5L5.0W5.2W4.5W4.5W5.5L4.5W5.5L5.4W4.5W2.8L3.0L5.5L5.9L3.3L5.5L4.1L2.5L2014-082016-072017-102020-052022-08
WinLossTrend

Marquardt · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Cezar FerreiraRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis · 2017-11
L · Dec · R3
Vitor BelfortRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway · 2017-06
L · Dec · R3
Sam AlveyRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena · 2017-01
W · KO · R2
Tamdan McCroryRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Dodson · 2016-10
L · KO · R1
Thiago SantosRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic · 2016-05

Alvey · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Michal OleksiejczukRating 2.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill · 2022-08
L · Sub · R2
Brendan AllenRating 4.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland · 2022-02
L · Dec · R3
Wellington TurmanRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Chikadze · 2021-08
L · Sub · R2
Julian MarquezRating 3.3
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Holland · 2021-04
Upcoming
Da Woon Jung
Decision
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · 2020-10

News & Media

Nate Marquardt · Sam Alvey
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