UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz
Birmingham, United Kingdom
5 Nov 2011
Bantamweight
VS
47%
Pickett
53%
Barao
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:09
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Barao
This is a genuine toss-up — Pickett at 47% vs Barao at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Barao has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 27 points.
Barao has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Pickett's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Barao has a chin rating of 24 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Pickett
Barao
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
5'6"
68"
Reach
+70"
47
Age
+39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Pickett
Barao
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
13.8
15.7
36.4
Performance Avg
59.4
37
Quality of Victory
64
60
Momentum Score
0
Pickett
Barao
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.4
30%
Strike Accuracy
38%
2.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.3
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
29
1
Body
3
0
Leg
5
RangeRange
10Distance33
0Clinch0
0Ground4
Pickett
Barao
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.7
2.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Pickett
Barao
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
24
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.7 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/39 fights
Chin rating based on
17/43 fights
Pickett
Barao
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
0
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Pickett
Barao
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
56%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
3
3
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Pickett
Barao
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.3
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.7
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
3.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
5.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.6
PickettBarao
Strike Zones
Pickett
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
37 absorbedBarao
Attacking
37 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Pickett targets the head (90% of attacks) — Barao absorbs 90% of strikes there
🎯Barao targets the head (78% of attacks) — Pickett absorbs 78% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Pickett
RND
Barao
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Pickett · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.2WinLossTrend
Barao · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Pickett · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Marlon VeraRating 4.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. Anderson · 2017-03
L · Dec · R3
Urijah FaberRating 5.5Decision
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · 2016-12
L · Sub · R1
Iuri AlcantaraRating 1.5Submission
UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson · 2016-10
W · Dec · R3
Francisco RiveraRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bisping · 2016-02
L · KO · R2
Thomas AlmeidaRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor · 2015-07
Barao · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Douglas Silva de AndradeRating 5.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare · 2019-11
L · KO · R2
Luke SandersRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · 2019-02
L · Dec · R3
Andre EwellRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders · 2018-09
L · Dec · R3
Brian KelleherRating 5.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Stephens · 2018-02
L · Dec · R3
Aljamain SterlingRating 6.5Decision
UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2 · 2017-07