UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teixeira
Jacksonville, USA
13 May 2020
Featherweight
VS
24%
Azure
76%
Kelleher
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 3:40
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Kelleher
Kelleher is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 28 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Kelleher has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.
Kelleher has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Kelleher has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Azure
Kelleher
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"+
Height
5'6"
69"+
Reach
66"
34+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Azure
Kelleher
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
13.2
40.8
35.0
Performance Avg
44.5
25
Quality of Victory
43
50
Momentum Score
61
Azure
Kelleher
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.7
42%
Strike Accuracy
44%
1.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.4
0 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
12
5
Body
3
6
Leg
4
RangeRange
24Distance17
2Clinch0
0Ground2
Azure
Kelleher
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.9
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Azure
Kelleher
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
76
0
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
5
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/11 fights
Chin rating based on
17/40 fights
Azure
Kelleher
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
50
61
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Azure
Kelleher
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
63%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
3
2
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Azure
Kelleher
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.4
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.9
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.8
1.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
9.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.9
AzureKelleher
Strike Zones
Azure
Attacking
26 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedKelleher
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
26 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Azure targets the head (58% of attacks) — Kelleher absorbs 58% of strikes there
🎯Kelleher targets the head (63% of attacks) — Azure absorbs 63% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Azure
RND
Kelleher
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Azure · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Kelleher · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.1WinLossTrend
Azure · Last 4
L · Dec · R3
Jack ShoreRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Holland · 2021-04
W · Dec · R3
Cole SmithRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sakai · 2020-09
L · KO · R2
Brian KelleherRating 3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teixeira · 2020-05
W · Dec · R3
Brad KatonaRating 4.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje · 2019-09
Kelleher · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Cody GibsonRating 1.7Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · 2024-07
L · KO · R1
Cody GarbrandtRating 2.6KO/TKO
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Sub · R1
Mario BautistaRating 2.6Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · 2022-06
L · Sub · R1
Umar NurmagomedovRating 2.8Submission
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
W · Dec · R3
Kevin CroomRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze · 2022-01