UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs Cruz
Boston, USA
17 Jan 2016
Lightweight
VS
49%
Pettis
51%
Alvarez
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
AP
Anthony Pettis
"Showtime"
24 – 10
5'10"72" reachOrthodox39 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 19
EA
Eddie Alvarez
29 – 6
Well-Rounded42 yrsOrthodox69" reach5'9"
CFR 19

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Alvarez

This is a genuine toss-up — Pettis at 49% vs Alvarez at 51% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Alvarez throws more volume but Pettis connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Pettis's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Alvarez has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Pettis
Alvarez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'9"
72"+
Reach
69"
39+
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Pettis
Alvarez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.8
19.3
52.6
Performance Avg
52.9
51
Quality of Victory
50
72
Momentum Score
66
Pettis
Alvarez
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
2.0
52%
Strike Accuracy
45%
3.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.1
3 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
13
4
Body
6
3
Leg
3
RangeRange
18Distance18
2Clinch1
0Ground3
Pettis
Alvarez
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.2
2.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Pettis
Alvarez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
54
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20/34 fights
Chin rating based on
8/35 fights
Pettis
Alvarez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
72
66
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R3
Upcoming
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
Pettis
Alvarez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
50%
3
KO / TKO Wins
2
4
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Pettis
Alvarez
Striking3.8 / 6.1Volume4.0 / 5.1Grappling3.8 / 1.2Wrestling2.6 / 0.8Submission3.6 / 0.0Pressure6.1 / 5.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.1
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
3.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.2
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.1
Pettis
Strike Zones
Alvarez
Pettis
Attacking
13HEAD4BODY3LEGS20 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD6BODY3LEGS22 absorbed
Alvarez
Attacking
13HEAD6BODY3LEGS22 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD4BODY3LEGS20 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Pettis targets the head (65% of attacks) — Alvarez absorbs 65% of strikes there
🎯Alvarez targets the head (59% of attacks) — Pettis absorbs 59% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Pettis
RND
Alvarez
0/0R00/0

Pettis · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0106.0L5.0W5.0W5.0W5.0W5.1W5.7L5.5L6.0L6.9W3.8L4.9W4.1L6.0W3.3L5.7W5.5L3.8L4.5W4.5W2011-062014-122016-122019-032020-12
WinLossTrend

Alvarez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.5L4.5W4.5W5.2W4.1L7.1W3.4L2014-092016-012016-112018-07
WinLossTrend

Pettis · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Alex MoronoRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal · 2020-12
W · Dec · R3
Donald CerroneRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · Sub · R2
Diego FerreiraRating 3.8
Submission
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · 2020-01
L · Dec · R3
Nate DiazRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08
W · KO · R2
Stephen ThompsonRating 5.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis · 2019-03

Alvarez · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Dustin PoirierRating 3.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2 · 2018-07
W · KO · R3
Justin GaethjeRating 7.1
KO/TKO
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2 · 2017-12
Upcoming
Dustin Poirier
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos · 2017-05
L · KO · R2
Conor McGregorRating 4.1
KO/TKO
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor · 2016-11
W · KO · R1
Rafael Dos AnjosRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez · 2016-07

News & Media

Anthony Pettis · Eddie Alvarez
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