UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley
Atlanta, USA
30 Jul 2016
Bantamweight
VS
46%
Rivera
54%
Perez
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Perez
This is a genuine toss-up — Rivera at 46% vs Perez at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Striking split: Rivera throws more volume but Perez connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Rivera's chin rating of 58 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Rivera
Perez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
5'8"
70"+
Reach
68"
44
Age
+36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Rivera
Perez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.7
22.3
45.2
Performance Avg
54.6
49
Quality of Victory
39
69
Momentum Score
100
Rivera
Perez
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.8
1.3
44%
Strike Accuracy
48%
8.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.4
3 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
9
1
Body
6
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
13Distance6
0Clinch1
1Ground9
Rivera
Perez
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
0.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.5
0.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Rivera
Perez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
58
86
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
3
Sub Losses
1
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/18 fights
Chin rating based on
9/23 fights
Rivera
Perez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
69
100
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Rivera
Perez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
43%
3
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
1
1
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Rivera
Perez
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.4
0.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.5
0.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.4
6.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.3
2.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.1
RiveraPerez
Strike Zones
Rivera
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedPerez
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Rivera targets the head (93% of attacks) — Perez absorbs 93% of strikes there
🎯Perez targets the head (56% of attacks) — Rivera absorbs 56% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Rivera
RND
Perez
0/0R00/0
Rivera · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Perez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Rivera · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Erik PerezRating 5.5Decision
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley · 2016-07
L · Dec · R3
Brad PickettRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bisping · 2016-02
L · Sub · R1
John LinekerRating 1.5Submission
UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2 · 2015-09
W · KO · R1
Alex CaceresRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Henderson · 2015-06
L · Sub · R2
Urijah FaberRating 2.8Submission
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II · 2014-12
Perez · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Felipe ArantesRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Ferguson · 2016-11
W · Dec · R3
Francisco RiveraRating 4.5Decision
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley · 2016-07
W · Dec · R3
Taylor LapilusRating 5.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gastelum · 2015-11
L · Sub · R2
Bryan CarawayRating 2.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Khabilov · 2014-06
W · Dec · R3
Edwin FigueroaRating 4.5Decision
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks · 2013-11