UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Stephens
Orlando, USA
24 Feb 2018
Women's Bantamweight
VS
55%
McMann
45%
Reneau
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 3:40
SM
Sara McMann
13 – 6
5'6"66" reachOrthodox45 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 28
MR
Marion Reneau
"The Belizean Bruiser"
9 – 8
Well-Rounded5-fight slide48 yrsOrthodox68" reach5'6"
CFR 24

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: McMann

This is a genuine toss-up — McMann at 55% vs Reneau at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Reneau throws more volume but McMann connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

McMann's chin rating of 28 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Reneau has a chin rating of 66 — a potential KO vulnerability.

McMann
Reneau
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
5'6"
66"
Reach
+68"
45+
Age
48
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
McMann
Reneau
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
28.4
23.5
44.1
Performance Avg
44.1
38
Quality of Victory
46
92
Momentum Score
15
McMann
Reneau
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
1.3
47%
Strike Accuracy
45%
2.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.8
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
21
2
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance9
3Clinch1
0Ground11
McMann
Reneau
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.7
2.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
McMann
Reneau
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
28
66
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
4
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
11 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/19 fights
Chin rating based on
13/17 fights
McMann
Reneau
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
92
15
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
McMann
Reneau
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
43%
80%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
2
Submission Wins
2
4
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

McMann
Reneau
Striking2.5 / 4.8Volume5.7 / 2.4Grappling3.7 / 3.7Wrestling2.6 / 2.6Submission2.9 / 4.0Pressure4.6 / 6.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.8
3.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.7
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
2.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.0
4.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.8
5.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.4
McMann
Strike Zones
Reneau
McMann
Attacking
3HEAD2BODY1LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
21HEAD0BODY0LEGS21 absorbed
Reneau
Attacking
21HEAD0BODY0LEGS21 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD2BODY1LEGS6 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯McMann targets the head (50% of attacks) — Reneau absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Reneau targets the head (100% of attacks) — McMann absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

McMann
RND
Reneau
0/0R00/0

McMann · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0105.0W1.5L5.3W6.4L2.7L4.5W5.2W5.0W3.1L2.8L4.5W5.5L5.2W2013-042015-082017-092022-03
WinLossTrend

Reneau · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.5
0104.5W5.8W5.6L5.5L5.5W5.5W5.2W5.5L5.6L6.1L6.8L4.9L2015-012016-022018-022020-062021-07
WinLossTrend

McMann · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Karol RosaRating 5.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · 2022-03
L · Sub · R3
Julianna PenaRating 5.5
Submission
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor · 2021-01
W · Dec · R3
Lina LansbergRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Dos Santos · 2020-01
L · Sub · R2
Marion ReneauRating 2.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Stephens · 2018-02
L · Sub · R2
Ketlen VieiraRating 3.1
Submission
UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2 · 2017-09

Reneau · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Miesha TateRating 4.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Moises · 2021-07
L · Dec · R3
Macy ChiassonRating 6.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Holland · 2021-03
L · Dec · R3
Raquel PenningtonRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Volkov · 2020-06
L · Dec · R3
Yana SantosRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos Santos · 2019-03
L · Dec · R3
Cat ZinganoRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov · 2018-07

News & Media

Sara McMann · Marion Reneau
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