UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2
Miami, USA
9 Mar 2024
Flyweight
VS
38%
Vergara
62%
Almabayev
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
CJ
CJ Vergara
12 – 7
5'6"68" reachOrthodox34 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 36
Asu
Asu Almabayev
"Zulfikar"
23 – 3
Well-Rounded2-fight win streak32 yrsOrthodox65" reach5'4"
CFR 58

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Almabayev

Almabayev holds a meaningful edge at 62% per the CFR ratings — but Vergara has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 22 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Vergara throws more volume but Almabayev connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Vergara's chin rating of 50 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Vergara
Almabayev
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"+
Height
5'4"
68"+
Reach
65"
34
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Vergara
Almabayev
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
35.6
57.9
36.0
Performance Avg
53.7
35
Quality of Victory
32
30
Momentum Score
83
Vergara
Almabayev
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.5
0.5
56%
Strike Accuracy
59%
4.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.7
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
5
9
Body
5
0
Leg
6
RangeRange
13Distance9
1Clinch5
0Ground2
Vergara
Almabayev
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.3
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Vergara
Almabayev
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
50
78
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/19 fights
Chin rating based on
8/26 fights
Vergara
Almabayev
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
30
83
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Vergara
Almabayev
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
33%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
2
2
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Vergara
Almabayev
Striking4.1 / 1.7Volume6.1 / 7.0Grappling1.6 / 4.3Wrestling1.1 / 3.0Submission0.0 / 3.3Pressure3.5 / 4.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.7
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.3
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
3.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.9
6.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.0
Vergara
Strike Zones
Almabayev
Vergara
Attacking
5HEAD9BODY0LEGS14 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD5BODY6LEGS16 absorbed
Almabayev
Attacking
5HEAD5BODY6LEGS16 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD9BODY0LEGS14 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Vergara targets the body (64% of attacks) — Almabayev absorbs 64% of strikes there
🎯Almabayev targets the legs (38% of attacks) — Vergara absorbs 38% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Vergara
RND
Almabayev
0/0R00/0

Vergara · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0106.3L5.0W4.5L5.2W4.5W6.6L3.3L2.5L2021-112022-102023-072024-102025-03
WinLossTrend

Almabayev · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0106.1W4.5W5.1W4.7W4.5L5.4W6.8W2023-082024-062025-032025-11
WinLossTrend

Vergara · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Edgar ChairezRating 2.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · KO · R1
Ramazan TemirovRating 3.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
L · Dec · R3
Asu AlmabayevRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
W · Dec · R3
Vinicius SalvadorRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
W · KO · R2
Daniel LacerdaRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen · 2023-03

Almabayev · Last 5

Upcoming
Charles Johnson
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · 2026-06
W · Sub · R3
Alex PerezRating 6.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Jose OchoaRating 5.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · 2025-07
L · KO · R3
Manel KapeRating 4.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Matheus NicolauRating 4.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10

News & Media

CJ Vergara · Asu Almabayev
← Back to fights