CJ Vergara vs Asu Almabayev — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2

Miami, USA

9 Mar 2024

Flyweight

37%

Vergara

63%

Almabayev

Win Probability

Decision

Round 3 · 5:00

CJ Vergara

12 – 7

5'6"68" reachOrthodox35 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded

CFR 36

Asu Almabayev

"Zulfikar"

23 – 3

Well-Rounded3-fight win streak32 yrsOrthodox65" reach5'4"

CFR 60

★ Official Result

Asu AlmabayevwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00

def. CJ Vergara · UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Almabayev

→

Actual result

Almabayev wins

Decision · R3

Pre-fight analysis

Almabayev holds a meaningful edge at 63% per the CFR ratings — but Vergara has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 24 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Risk flags

Vergara's chin rating of 50 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

VergaraAlmabayev

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Vergara

Almabayev

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'6"+

Height

5'4"

68"+

Reach

65"

Age

+32

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

Vergara

Almabayev

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

35.6

59.7

36.0

Performance Avg

55.5

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

Vergara

Almabayev

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

4.1

/ 10

1.8

/ 10

3.5

Style: Pressure

5.6

6.1

Style: Volume

6.3

1 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

0 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

13Distance9

1Clinch5

0Ground2

Vergara

Almabayev

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

1.6

/ 10

4.8

/ 10

1.1

Wrestling Style (/10)

3.4

0.0

Submission Style (/10)

4.3

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Vergara

Almabayev

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

KO risk

Verdict

Moderate

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R1.0 stoppage

KO round context

Avg R3.0 stoppage

1 fight ago

Last KO loss

3 fights ago

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

8/19 fights

Chin rating based on

8/26 fights

Vergara

Almabayev

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

3-fight 📉 slide

Current form

3-fight 🔥 win streak

L · Sub · R1

L · KO · R1

L · Dec · R3

W · Dec · R3

W · KO · R2

Last 5

W · Sub · R3

W · Dec · R3

L · KO · R3

W · Dec · R3

Vergara

Almabayev

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

33%

43%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Vergara

Almabayev

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

4.1

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

1.8

1.6

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

4.8

1.1

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

3.4

0.0

Submission

Submission attack frequency

4.3

3.5

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

5.6

6.1

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

6.3

Vergara

Strike Zones

Almabayev

Vergara

Attacking

14 landed

Absorbing

16 absorbed

Almabayev

Attacking

16 landed

Absorbing

14 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Vergara targets the body (64% of attacks) — Almabayev absorbs 64% of strikes there

🎯Almabayev targets the legs (38% of attacks) — Vergara absorbs 38% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Vergara

RND

Almabayev

0/0R00/0

Vergara · Last 5

L · Sub · R1

Edgar Chairez

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03

L · KO · R1

Ramazan Temirov

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10

L · Dec · R3

Asu Almabayev

Decision

UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03

W · Dec · R3

Vinicius Salvador

Decision

UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07

W · KO · R2

Daniel Lacerda

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen · 2023-03

Almabayev · Last 5

W · Sub · R3

Charles Johnson

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · 2026-06

W · Sub · R3

Alex Perez

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11

W · Dec · R3

Jose Ochoa

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · 2025-07

L · KO · R3

Manel Kape

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev · 2025-03

W · Dec · R3

Matheus Nicolau

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10

News & Media

CJ Vergara · Asu Almabayev

← Back to fights