UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez
Las Vegas, USA
9 Aug 2025
Light Heavyweight
VS
90%
Walker
10%
Cerqueira
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Julius
Julius Walker
"Juice Box"
7 – 2
6'4"78" reachOrthodox26 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 30
Rafael
Rafael Cerqueira
"The Lion"
11 – 4
Well-Rounded4-fight slide36 yrsSouthpaw76" reach6'3"
CFR 3

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Walker

Walker is a strong favourite at 90% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 26 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Walker has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 25 points.

Walker has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Cerqueira has a chin rating of 42 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Walker
Cerqueira
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"+
Height
6'3"
78"+
Reach
76"
26+
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Walker
Cerqueira
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
29.5
3.4
28.3
Performance Avg
0.0
25
Quality of Victory
0
27
Momentum Score
0
Walker
Cerqueira
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
0.8
54%
Strike Accuracy
46%
0.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
7
1
Body
0
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
6Distance7
1Clinch0
11Ground0
Walker
Cerqueira
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Walker
Cerqueira
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
76
42
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/9 fights
Chin rating based on
4/15 fights
Walker
Cerqueira
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
27
0
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Walker
Cerqueira
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Walker
Cerqueira
Striking0.7 / 0.0Volume8.7 / 0.0Grappling2.4 / 0.0Wrestling1.7 / 0.0Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure1.0 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
1.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
8.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Walker
Strike Zones
Cerqueira
Walker
Attacking
15HEAD1BODY2LEGS18 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD0BODY0LEGS7 absorbed
Cerqueira
Attacking
7HEAD0BODY0LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
15HEAD1BODY2LEGS18 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Walker targets the head (83% of attacks) — Cerqueira absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Cerqueira targets the head (100% of attacks) — Walker absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Walker
RND
Cerqueira
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Walker · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0106.4L4.5W4.1L2025-022025-082026-02
WinLossTrend

Cerqueira · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.5
0102.4L2.3L5.5L3.8L2024-102025-022025-082025-11
WinLossTrend

Walker · Last 4

Upcoming
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · 2026-06
L · KO · R2
Dustin JacobyRating 4.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
W · Dec · R3
Rafael CerqueiraRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Alonzo MenifieldRating 6.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · 2025-02

Cerqueira · Last 4

L · Sub · R1
Abdul Rakhman YakhyaevRating 3.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
L · Dec · R3
Julius WalkerRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08
L · KO · R1
Modestas BukauskasRating 2.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · 2025-02
L · KO · R1
Ibo AslanRating 2.4
KO/TKO
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10

News & Media

Julius Walker · Rafael Cerqueira
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