METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez
Las Vegas, USA
9 Aug 2025
Light Heavyweight
VS
88%
Walker
12%
Cerqueira
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Julius WalkerwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Rafael Cerqueira · UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Walker
→
Actual result
Walker wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Walker is a strong favourite at 88% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 21 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Walker has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 25 points.
Risk flags
Walker's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Cerqueira has a chin rating of 42 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
WalkerCerqueira
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Walker
Cerqueira
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"+
Height
6'3"
78"+
Reach
76"
27+
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Walker
Cerqueira
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
23.9
3.4
25.0
Performance Avg
0.0
25
Quality of Victory
0
17
Momentum Score
0
Walker
Cerqueira
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.5
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
0.8
Style: Pressure
0.0
8.5
Style: Volume
0.0
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
7
1
Body
0
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
6Distance7
1Clinch0
11Ground0
Walker
Cerqueira
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.4
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Walker
Cerqueira
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
42
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/9 fights
Chin rating based on
4/15 fights
Walker
Cerqueira
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
17
0
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Walker
Cerqueira
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Walker
Cerqueira
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
0.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
8.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
WalkerCerqueira
Strike Zones
Walker
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedCerqueira
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Walker targets the head (83% of attacks) — Cerqueira absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Cerqueira targets the head (100% of attacks) — Walker absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Walker
RND
Cerqueira
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Walker · Last 4
L · KO · R1
Abdul Rakhman YakhyaevKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · 2026-06
L · KO · R2
Dustin JacobyKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
W · Dec · R3
Rafael CerqueiraDecision
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Alonzo MenifieldDecision
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · 2025-02
Cerqueira · Last 4
L · Sub · R1
Abdul Rakhman YakhyaevSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
L · Dec · R3
Julius WalkerDecision
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08
L · KO · R1
Modestas BukauskasKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · 2025-02
L · KO · R1
Ibo AslanKO/TKO
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10