UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr.
Salt Lake City, USA
5 Oct 2024
Bantamweight
VS
44%
Aldo
56%
Bautista
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Jose
Jose Aldo
32 – 10
5'7"70" reachOrthodox39 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 45
Mario
Mario Bautista
17 – 3
Well-Rounded32 yrsSwitch69" reach5'9"
CFR 57

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Bautista

This is a genuine toss-up — Aldo at 44% vs Bautista at 56% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Aldo has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.

Bautista has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Aldo's chin rating of 2 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Bautista has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Aldo
Bautista
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'9"
70"+
Reach
69"
39
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Aldo
Bautista
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.5
56.7
53.6
Performance Avg
54.6
49
Quality of Victory
39
40
Momentum Score
73
Aldo
Bautista
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
2.3
48%
Strike Accuracy
52%
4.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.5
4 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
3
3
Body
5
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
16Distance10
1Clinch0
0Ground0
Aldo
Bautista
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.7
/ 10
4.2
/ 10
1.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
3.6
0
Submission wins
4
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Aldo
Bautista
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
2
64
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
4
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
7 fights ago
Last KO loss
11 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
23/42 fights
Chin rating based on
15/20 fights
Aldo
Bautista
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
40
73
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Aldo
Bautista
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
46%
4
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
4
10
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Aldo
Bautista
Striking4.1 / 2.5Volume6.9 / 5.9Grappling1.7 / 4.2Wrestling1.2 / 3.0Submission0.0 / 3.6Pressure3.8 / 5.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.5
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.2
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.6
3.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
6.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.9
Aldo
Strike Zones
Bautista
Aldo
Attacking
14HEAD3BODY0LEGS17 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD5BODY2LEGS10 absorbed
Bautista
Attacking
3HEAD5BODY2LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
14HEAD3BODY0LEGS17 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Aldo targets the head (82% of attacks) — Bautista absorbs 82% of strikes there
🎯Bautista targets the body (50% of attacks) — Aldo absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Aldo
RND
Bautista
0/0R00/0

Aldo · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0104.5W4.5W5.0W4.5W5.9W4.5W4.5W3.5L4.5W3.8L3.8L5.5W6.0W7.0L5.5L5.5L5.3W5.0W5.7W6.8L5.0W6.6L6.6L2011-042014-102019-022021-122025-05
WinLossTrend

Bautista · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0103.0L4.5W5.2W2.8L4.5W5.3W5.0W5.0W5.5W5.2W5.0W4.5W6.8L6.1W2019-012022-022023-082025-102026-02
WinLossTrend

Aldo · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Aiemann ZahabiRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
L · Dec · R3
Mario BautistaRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Jonathan MartinezRating 5
Decision
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
L · Dec · R3
Merab DvalishviliRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · 2022-08
W · Dec · R5
Rob FontRating 5.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo · 2021-12

Bautista · Last 5

Upcoming
Cory Sandhagen
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
W · Sub · R2
Vinicius OliveiraRating 6.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Umar NurmagomedovRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
W · Dec · R3
Patchy MixRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Jose AldoRating 5
Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10

News & Media

Jose Aldo · Mario Bautista
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