METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr.
Salt Lake City, USA
5 Oct 2024
Bantamweight
VS
44%
Aldo
56%
Bautista
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Mario BautistawinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Jose Aldo · UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr.
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Bautista
→
Actual result
Bautista wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Aldo at 44% vs Bautista at 56% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Aldo has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.
Bautista has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Aldo's chin rating of 2 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Bautista has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
AldoBautista
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Aldo
Bautista
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'9"
70"+
Reach
69"
39
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Aldo
Bautista
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.5
56.7
53.6
Performance Avg
54.6
49
Quality of Victory
39
40
Momentum Score
73
Aldo
Bautista
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.9
2.3
48%
Strike Accuracy
52%
4.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.5
4 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
3
3
Body
5
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
16Distance10
1Clinch0
0Ground0
Aldo
Bautista
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.7
/ 10
4.2
/ 10
1.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
3.6
0
Submission wins
4
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Aldo
Bautista
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
2
64
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
4
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
7 fights ago
Last KO loss
11 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
23/42 fights
Chin rating based on
15/20 fights
Aldo
Bautista
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
40
73
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Aldo
Bautista
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
46%
4
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
4
10
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Aldo
Bautista
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.5
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.2
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.6
3.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
6.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.9
AldoBautista
Strike Zones
Aldo
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedBautista
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Aldo targets the head (82% of attacks) — Bautista absorbs 82% of strikes there
🎯Bautista targets the body (50% of attacks) — Aldo absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Aldo
RND
Bautista
0/0R00/0
Aldo · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Bautista · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Aldo · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Aiemann ZahabiRating 6.6Decision
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
L · Dec · R3
Mario BautistaRating 6.6Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Jonathan MartinezRating 5Decision
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
L · Dec · R3
Merab DvalishviliRating 6.8Decision
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · 2022-08
W · Dec · R5
Rob FontRating 5.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo · 2021-12
Bautista · Last 5
Upcoming
Cory SandhagenUFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
W · Sub · R2
Vinicius OliveiraRating 6.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Umar NurmagomedovRating 6.8Decision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
W · Dec · R3
Patchy MixRating 4.5Decision
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Jose AldoRating 5Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10