UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. Smith
Moncton, Canada
27 Oct 2018
Lightweight
VS
25%
Gouti
75%
Haqparast
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Haqparast
Haqparast is a strong favourite at 75% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 32 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Gouti has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 29 points.
Haqparast has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Gouti's chin rating of 50 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Haqparast has a chin rating of 50 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Gouti
Haqparast
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
5'10"
72"
Reach
72"
39
Age
+30
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Gouti
Haqparast
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.4
48.0
42.7
Performance Avg
45.6
60
Quality of Victory
32
33
Momentum Score
72
Gouti
Haqparast
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
2.7
35%
Strike Accuracy
48%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.3
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
42
3
Body
12
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
13Distance22
0Clinch13
0Ground22
Gouti
Haqparast
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.0
/ 10
1.9
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.3
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Gouti
Haqparast
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
50
50
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/17 fights
Chin rating based on
15/24 fights
Gouti
Haqparast
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
33
72
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Gouti
Haqparast
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
20%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
8
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Gouti
Haqparast
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.3
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.9
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.4
0.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.7
GoutiHaqparast
Strike Zones
Gouti
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
57 absorbedHaqparast
Attacking
57 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Gouti targets the head (77% of attacks) — Haqparast absorbs 77% of strikes there
🎯Haqparast targets the head (74% of attacks) — Gouti absorbs 74% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Gouti
RND
Haqparast
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Gouti · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.9WinLossTrend
Haqparast · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Gouti · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Nasrat HaqparastRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. Smith · 2018-10
L · Dec · R3
Sage NorthcuttRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros · 2018-02
W · KO · R1
Andrew HolbrookRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Struve · 2017-09
L · KO · R1
Chad LapriseRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit · 2016-08
L · Sub · R3
Olivier Aubin-MercierRating 4Submission
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson · 2016-06
Haqparast · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Quillan SalkilldRating 3.6KO/TKO
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Jared GordonRating 4.9Decision
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