UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Gaethje
Philadelphia, USA
30 Mar 2019
Bantamweight
VS
82%
Perez
18%
Rosa
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Perez
Perez is a strong favourite at 82% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 48 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Perez has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Perez has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Perez's chin rating of 18 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Rosa has a chin rating of 60 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Perez
Rosa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
5'6"
65"
Reach
65"
34
Age
+31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Perez
Rosa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
60.7
13.0
52.7
Performance Avg
33.8
50
Quality of Victory
37
100
Momentum Score
33
Perez
Rosa
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.3
1.0
49%
Strike Accuracy
31%
6.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.6
4 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
6
1
Body
0
11
Leg
2
RangeRange
11Distance6
0Clinch0
2Ground2
Perez
Rosa
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.6
/ 10
5.2
/ 10
1.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.6
2.5
Submission Style (/10)
5.0
2
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Perez
Rosa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
18
60
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/36 fights
Chin rating based on
7/16 fights
Perez
Rosa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
33
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Perez
Rosa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
50%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Perez
Rosa
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.6
2.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.2
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.6
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
7.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.4
3.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.6
PerezRosa
Strike Zones
Perez
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedRosa
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Perez targets the legs (85% of attacks) — Rosa absorbs 85% of strikes there
🎯Rosa targets the head (75% of attacks) — Perez absorbs 75% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Perez
RND
Rosa
0/0R00/0
Perez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Rosa · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Perez · Last 5
Upcoming
SumudaerjiUFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05
W · KO · R1
Charles JohnsonRating 5.9KO/TKO
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
L · Sub · R3
Asu AlmabayevRating 5.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
L · KO · R2
Tatsuro TairaRating 3.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira · 2024-06
W · KO · R2
Matheus NicolauRating 5.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · 2024-04
Rosa · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Jordan EspinosaRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvillo · 2020-06
L · KO · R2
Raulian PaivaRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz · 2020-02
L · Dec · R3
Kai Kara-FranceRating 6.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Zhang · 2019-08
L · Dec · R3
Alex PerezRating 6.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Gaethje · 2019-03
W · Dec · R3
Joby SanchezRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie vs. Rodriguez · 2018-11