★ Championship Bout · Interim Bantamweight
UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDonald
London, United Kingdom
16 Feb 2013
Interim Bantamweight
VS
42%
Barao
58%
McDonald
Win Probability
Submission
Round 4 · 3:57
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: McDonald
This is a genuine toss-up — Barao at 42% vs McDonald at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Barao has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 19 points.
Striking split: Barao throws more volume but McDonald connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Barao's chin rating of 24 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
McDonald has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Barao
McDonald
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'9"
70"
Reach
70"
39
Age
+35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Barao
McDonald
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.7
22.0
59.4
Performance Avg
53.6
64
Quality of Victory
45
0
Momentum Score
100
Barao
McDonald
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.1
38%
Strike Accuracy
40%
3.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.7
2 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
6
0
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance5
2Clinch1
0Ground0
Barao
McDonald
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.7
/ 10
3.5
/ 10
2.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.4
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
3.3
3
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Barao
McDonald
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
24
54
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R3.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/43 fights
Chin rating based on
9/21 fights
Barao
McDonald
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
100
5-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R4
Barao
McDonald
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
56%
67%
2
KO / TKO Wins
2
3
Submission Wins
2
4
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Barao
McDonald
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.7
3.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.7
4.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.0
BaraoMcDonald
Strike Zones
Barao
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedMcDonald
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Barao targets the head (80% of attacks) — McDonald absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯McDonald targets the head (100% of attacks) — Barao absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Barao
RND
McDonald
0/0R00/0
Barao · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
McDonald · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.1WinLossTrend
Barao · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Douglas Silva de AndradeRating 5.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare · 2019-11
L · KO · R2
Luke SandersRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · 2019-02
L · Dec · R3
Andre EwellRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders · 2018-09
L · Dec · R3
Brian KelleherRating 5.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Stephens · 2018-02
L · Dec · R3
Aljamain SterlingRating 6.5Decision
UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2 · 2017-07
McDonald · Last 5
L · KO · R1
John LinekerRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker · 2016-07
W · Sub · R2
Masanori KaneharaRating 5.2Submission
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit · 2016-01
L · Sub · R2
Urijah FaberRating 2.8Submission
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavidez 2 · 2013-12
W · Sub · R2
Brad PickettRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonnen · 2013-08
L · Sub · R4
Renan BaraoRating 3.4Submission
UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDonald · 2013-02