UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva
San Antonio, USA
13 Sept 2025
Flyweight
VS
65%
Aguilar
35%
Gurule
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Jesus
Jesus Aguilar
12 – 4
5'4"62" reachOrthodox30 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 52
Luis
Luis Gurule
"Grim"
11 – 3
Well-Rounded32 yrsOrthodox64" reach5'5"
CFR 28

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Aguilar

Aguilar holds a meaningful edge at 65% per the CFR ratings — but Gurule has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 25 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Aguilar has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.

Gurule has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Aguilar
Gurule
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"
Height
+5'5"
62"
Reach
+64"
30+
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Aguilar
Gurule
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
52.3
27.7
47.5
Performance Avg
25.0
41
Quality of Victory
25
60
Momentum Score
28
Aguilar
Gurule
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
2.6
35%
Strike Accuracy
45%
3.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
28
10
Body
2
6
Leg
3
RangeRange
27Distance27
3Clinch2
0Ground4
Aguilar
Gurule
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.2
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
2.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
2.5
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Aguilar
Gurule
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
84
74
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/16 fights
Chin rating based on
4/14 fights
Aguilar
Gurule
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
28
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Aguilar
Gurule
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Aguilar
Gurule
Striking3.6 / 0.5Volume5.1 / 8.5Grappling3.2 / 2.4Wrestling2.2 / 1.7Submission2.5 / 0.0Pressure5.2 / 0.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
3.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.8
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.5
Aguilar
Strike Zones
Gurule
Aguilar
Attacking
14HEAD10BODY6LEGS30 landed
Absorbing
28HEAD2BODY3LEGS33 absorbed
Gurule
Attacking
28HEAD2BODY3LEGS33 landed
Absorbing
14HEAD10BODY6LEGS30 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Aguilar targets the head (47% of attacks) — Gurule absorbs 47% of strikes there
🎯Gurule targets the head (85% of attacks) — Aguilar absorbs 85% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Aguilar
RND
Gurule
0/0R00/0

Aguilar · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0103.2L5.0W4.5W5.0W6.1L4.5W6.1L2023-022024-022025-022026-03
WinLossTrend

Gurule · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0103.6L6.4L7.2L4.5W2025-042025-092026-022026-05
WinLossTrend

Aguilar · Last 5

Upcoming
Rei Tsuruya
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
SumudaerjiRating 6.1
Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Luis GuruleRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
L · Dec · R3
Rafael EstevamRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · 2025-02
W · Sub · R1
Stewart NicollRating 5
Submission
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08

Gurule · Last 4

W · Dec · R3
Daniel BarezRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Alden CoriaRating 7.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Jesus AguilarRating 6.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
L · KO · R2
Ode OsbourneRating 3.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · 2025-04

News & Media

Jesus Aguilar · Luis Gurule
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