METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silva
San Antonio, USA
13 Sept 2025
Flyweight
VS
68%
Aguilar
32%
Gurule
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Jesus AguilarwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Luis Gurule · Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silva
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Aguilar
→
Actual result
Aguilar wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Aguilar holds a meaningful edge at 68% per the CFR ratings — but Gurule has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 27 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Aguilar has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.
Risk flags
Gurule has a chin rating of 62 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
AguilarGurule
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Aguilar
Gurule
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"
Height
+5'5"
62"
Reach
+64"
30+
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Aguilar
Gurule
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
52.3
25.1
47.5
Performance Avg
23.0
41
Quality of Victory
25
60
Momentum Score
25
Aguilar
Gurule
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.6
/ 10
0.4
/ 10
5.2
Style: Pressure
0.6
5.1
Style: Volume
8.4
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
28
10
Body
2
6
Leg
3
RangeRange
27Distance27
3Clinch2
0Ground4
Aguilar
Gurule
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.2
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
2.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
2.5
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Aguilar
Gurule
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
84
62
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/16 fights
Chin rating based on
5/14 fights
Aguilar
Gurule
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
25
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Aguilar
Gurule
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Aguilar
Gurule
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.4
3.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.6
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.4
AguilarGurule
Strike Zones
Aguilar
Attacking
30 landedAbsorbing
33 absorbedGurule
Attacking
33 landedAbsorbing
30 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Aguilar targets the head (47% of attacks) — Gurule absorbs 47% of strikes there
🎯Gurule targets the head (85% of attacks) — Aguilar absorbs 85% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Aguilar
RND
Gurule
0/0R00/0
Aguilar · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
SumudaerjiDecision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Luis GuruleDecision
Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
L · Dec · R3
Rafael EstevamDecision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · 2025-02
W · Sub · R1
Stewart NicollSubmission
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
W · Dec · R3
Mateus MendoncaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02
Gurule · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Rei TsuruyaSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05
W · Dec · R3
Daniel BarezDecision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Alden CoriaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Jesus AguilarDecision
Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
L · KO · R2
Ode OsbourneKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · 2025-04