Alexander Hernandez vs Donald Cerrone — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw

Brooklyn, USA

19 Jan 2019

Lightweight

65%

Hernandez

35%

Cerrone

Win Probability

KO/TKO

Round 2 · 3:43

Alexander Hernandez

"El Gran Chango"

18 – 9

5'9"72" reachOrthodox33 yrsWell-Rounded

CFR 53

Donald Cerrone

"Cowboy"

36 – 17

Well-Rounded6-fight slide43 yrsOrthodox73" reach6'1"

CFR 28

★ Official Result

Donald CerronewinsKO/TKOR2 · 3:43

def. Alexander Hernandez · UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Hernandez

→

Actual result

Cerrone wins

KO/TKO · R2

Pre-fight analysis

Hernandez holds a meaningful edge at 65% per the CFR ratings — but Cerrone has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 25 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Risk flags

Hernandez's chin rating of 14 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Cerrone has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

HernandezCerrone

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Hernandez

Cerrone

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'9"

Height

+6'1"

72"

Reach

+73"

33+

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

Hernandez

Cerrone

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

52.9

28.2

47.4

Performance Avg

53.0

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

Hernandez

Cerrone

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

6.1

/ 10

5.6

/ 10

5.2

Style: Pressure

6.7

5.1

Style: Volume

3.7

5 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

10 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

11Distance22

7Clinch8

0Ground14

Hernandez

Cerrone

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

1.2

/ 10

2.8

/ 10

0.8

Wrestling Style (/10)

2.0

0.0

Submission Style (/10)

2.6

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Hernandez

Cerrone

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

KO risk

Verdict

2 consec. KOs

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R2.0 stoppage

KO round context

Avg R1.1 stoppage

9 fights ago

Last KO loss

1 fight ago

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

19/27 fights

Chin rating based on

38/53 fights

Hernandez

Cerrone

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

Current form

6-fight 📉 slide

Upcoming

L · Dec · R3

W · KO · R2

W · KO · R1

W · Dec · R3

Last 5

L · Sub · R2

L · KO · R1

Upcoming

L · Dec · R3

L · KO · R1

Hernandez

Cerrone

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

50%

70%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Hernandez

Cerrone

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

6.1

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

5.6

1.2

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

2.8

0.8

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

2.0

0.0

Submission

Submission attack frequency

2.6

5.2

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

6.7

5.1

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

3.7

Hernandez

Strike Zones

Cerrone

Hernandez

Attacking

18 landed

Absorbing

44 absorbed

Cerrone

Attacking

44 landed

Absorbing

18 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Hernandez targets the body (50% of attacks) — Cerrone absorbs 50% of strikes there

🎯Cerrone targets the head (73% of attacks) — Hernandez absorbs 73% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Hernandez

RND

Cerrone

0/0R00/0

0/0R10/0

Hernandez · Last 5

Upcoming

Rafael Dos Anjos

UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang · 2026-10

L · Dec · R3

Rafa Garcia

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04

W · KO · R2

Diego Ferreira

KO/TKO

Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09

W · KO · R1

Chase Hooper

KO/TKO

UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08

W · Dec · R3

Kurt Holobaugh

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · 2025-03

Cerrone · Last 5

L · Sub · R2

Jim Miller

Submission

UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · 2022-07

L · KO · R1

Alex Morono

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson · 2021-05

Upcoming

Niko Price

UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09

L · Dec · R3

Anthony Pettis

Decision

UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05

L · KO · R1

Conor McGregor

KO/TKO

UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · 2020-01

News & Media

Alexander Hernandez · Donald Cerrone

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