UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw
Brooklyn, USA
19 Jan 2019
Lightweight
VS
65%
Hernandez
35%
Cerrone
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 3:43
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Hernandez
Hernandez holds a meaningful edge at 65% per the CFR ratings — but Cerrone has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 25 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Cerrone has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Hernandez's chin rating of 14 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Cerrone has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Hernandez
Cerrone
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'1"
72"
Reach
+73"
33+
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Hernandez
Cerrone
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
52.9
28.2
47.4
Performance Avg
53.0
42
Quality of Victory
47
90
Momentum Score
63
Hernandez
Cerrone
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.8
2.3
43%
Strike Accuracy
49%
6.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.6
5 KOs
KO Finishes
10 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
32
9
Body
9
2
Leg
3
RangeRange
11Distance22
7Clinch8
0Ground14
Hernandez
Cerrone
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.8
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Hernandez
Cerrone
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
14
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
7
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.1 stoppage
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/27 fights
Chin rating based on
38/53 fights
Hernandez
Cerrone
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
90
63
Current form
6-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Hernandez
Cerrone
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
70%
5
KO / TKO Wins
10
0
Submission Wins
6
5
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Hernandez
Cerrone
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.6
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.8
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.6
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.7
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.7
HernandezCerrone
Strike Zones
Hernandez
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
44 absorbedCerrone
Attacking
44 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Hernandez targets the body (50% of attacks) — Cerrone absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Cerrone targets the head (73% of attacks) — Hernandez absorbs 73% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Hernandez
RND
Cerrone
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Hernandez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Cerrone · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Hernandez · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Rafa GarciaRating 6.3Decision
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W · KO · R2
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W · KO · R1
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W · Dec · R3
Kurt HolobaughRating 4.5Decision
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Cerrone · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Jim MillerRating 3.2Submission
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L · KO · R1
Alex MoronoRating 1.5KO/TKO
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Upcoming
Niko PriceUFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09
L · Dec · R3
Anthony PettisRating 5.5Decision
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L · KO · R1
Conor McGregorRating 3.5KO/TKO
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