UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Nelson
Saitama, Japan
20 Sept 2014
Lightweight
VS
34%
Tokudome
66%
Case
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 2:34
KT
Kazuki Tokudome
18 – 7
5'11"73" reachSouthpaw39 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 10
JC
Johnny Case
"Hollywood"
22 – 6
Well-Rounded2-fight slide36 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'10"
CFR 19

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Case

Case holds a meaningful edge at 66% per the CFR ratings — but Tokudome has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Case has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.

Case has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Tokudome
Case
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'10"
73"+
Reach
72"
39
Age
+36
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Tokudome
Case
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
9.6
18.5
25.0
Performance Avg
49.1
25
Quality of Victory
37
22
Momentum Score
58
Tokudome
Case
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.6
1.1
31%
Strike Accuracy
35%
0.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.8
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
9
0
Body
0
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
7Distance10
0Clinch0
0Ground1
Tokudome
Case
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.2
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Tokudome
Case
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
84
86
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
1
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/25 fights
Chin rating based on
6/28 fights
Tokudome
Case
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
22
58
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
Tokudome
Case
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
1
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Tokudome
Case
Striking0.5 / 3.8Volume8.5 / 5.3Grappling2.4 / 3.2Wrestling1.7 / 2.2Submission0.0 / 2.5Pressure0.8 / 5.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.8
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.2
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
0.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
8.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.3
Tokudome
Strike Zones
Case
Tokudome
Attacking
6HEAD0BODY1LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD0BODY2LEGS11 absorbed
Case
Attacking
9HEAD0BODY2LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD0BODY1LEGS7 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Tokudome targets the head (86% of attacks) — Case absorbs 86% of strikes there
🎯Case targets the head (82% of attacks) — Tokudome absorbs 82% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Tokudome
RND
Case
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Tokudome · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0104.5W5.5L5.5L2.8L2013-032013-072014-032014-09
WinLossTrend

Case · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.2W5.5W4.5W4.5W5.0L5.5L2014-092015-012015-062015-112016-032017-06
WinLossTrend

Tokudome · Last 4

L · Sub · R2
Johnny CaseRating 2.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Nelson · 2014-09
L · Dec · R3
Yui Chul NamRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kim vs Hathaway · 2014-03
L · Dec · R3
Norman ParkeRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman · 2013-07
W · Dec · R3
Cristiano MarcelloRating 4.5
Decision
UFC on FUEL TV: Silva vs. Stann · 2013-03

Case · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Anthony Rocco MartinRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee · 2017-06
L · Sub · R3
Jake MatthewsRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir · 2016-03
W · Dec · R3
Yan CabralRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3 · 2015-11
W · Dec · R3
Francisco TrevinoRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum · 2015-06
W · KO · R3
Frankie PerezRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver · 2015-01

News & Media

Kazuki Tokudome · Johnny Case
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