METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Nelson
Saitama, Japan
20 Sept 2014
Lightweight
VS
34%
Tokudome
66%
Case
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 2:34
★ Official Result
Johnny CasewinsSubmissionR2 · 2:34
def. Kazuki Tokudome · UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Nelson
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Case
→
Actual result
Case wins
Submission · R2
Pre-fight analysis
Case holds a meaningful edge at 66% per the CFR ratings — but Tokudome has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Case has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
TokudomeCase
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Tokudome
Case
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'10"
73"+
Reach
72"
39
Age
+37
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Tokudome
Case
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
9.6
18.5
25.0
Performance Avg
49.1
25
Quality of Victory
37
22
Momentum Score
58
Tokudome
Case
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.5
/ 10
3.8
/ 10
0.8
Style: Pressure
5.5
8.5
Style: Volume
5.3
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
9
0
Body
0
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
7Distance10
0Clinch0
0Ground1
Tokudome
Case
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.4
/ 10
3.2
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.2
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.5
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Tokudome
Case
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
84
86
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
1
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/25 fights
Chin rating based on
6/28 fights
Tokudome
Case
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
22
58
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
Tokudome
Case
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
1
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Tokudome
Case
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.8
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.2
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
0.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
8.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.3
TokudomeCase
Strike Zones
Tokudome
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedCase
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Tokudome targets the head (86% of attacks) — Case absorbs 86% of strikes there
🎯Case targets the head (82% of attacks) — Tokudome absorbs 82% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Tokudome
RND
Case
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Tokudome · Last 4
L · Sub · R2
Johnny CaseSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Nelson · 2014-09
L · Dec · R3
Yui Chul NamDecision
UFC Fight Night: Kim vs Hathaway · 2014-03
L · Dec · R3
Norman ParkeDecision
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman · 2013-07
W · Dec · R3
Cristiano MarcelloDecision
UFC on FUEL TV: Silva vs. Stann · 2013-03
Case · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Anthony Rocco MartinDecision
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee · 2017-06
L · Sub · R3
Jake MatthewsSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir · 2016-03
W · Dec · R3
Yan CabralDecision
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3 · 2015-11
W · Dec · R3
Francisco TrevinoDecision
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum · 2015-06
W · KO · R3
Frankie PerezKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver · 2015-01