UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
Salt Lake City, USA
29 Jul 2023
Welterweight
VS
39%
Semelsberger
61%
Medic
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 2:36
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Medic
Medic holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Semelsberger has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 26 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Medic has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 19 points.
Medic has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Semelsberger's chin rating of 48 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Medic has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Semelsberger
Medic
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
6'1"
75"+
Reach
71"
33
Age
33
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
Semelsberger
Medic
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.1
71.6
41.6
Performance Avg
62.7
39
Quality of Victory
58
84
Momentum Score
100
Semelsberger
Medic
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
2.9
43%
Strike Accuracy
63%
4.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
21
0
Body
5
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
10Distance13
1Clinch7
0Ground6
Semelsberger
Medic
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.4
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Semelsberger
Medic
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
48
54
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/19 fights
Chin rating based on
10/16 fights
Semelsberger
Medic
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
84
100
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Semelsberger
Medic
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
100%
2
KO / TKO Wins
7
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Semelsberger
Medic
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
1.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
9.1
5.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.4
SemelsbergerMedic
Strike Zones
Semelsberger
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
26 absorbedMedic
Attacking
26 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Semelsberger targets the head (82% of attacks) — Medic absorbs 82% of strikes there
🎯Medic targets the head (81% of attacks) — Semelsberger absorbs 81% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Semelsberger
RND
Medic
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Semelsberger · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Medic · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Semelsberger · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Charles RadtkeRating 2.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Preston ParsonsRating 5.5Decision
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L · KO · R3
Uros MedicRating 5.8KO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
L · Dec · R3
Jeremiah WellsRating 6.9Decision
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W · Dec · R3
Jake MatthewsRating 5.5Decision
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Medic · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Geoff NealRating 6KO/TKO
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W · KO · R1
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L · KO · R1
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