METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
Salt Lake City, USA
29 Jul 2023
Welterweight
VS
38%
Semelsberger
62%
Medic
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 2:36
★ Official Result
Uros MedicwinsKO/TKOR3 · 2:36
def. Matthew Semelsberger · UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Medic
→
Actual result
Medic wins
KO/TKO · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Medic holds a meaningful edge at 62% per the CFR ratings — but Semelsberger has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 28 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Medic has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 20 points.
Risk flags
Semelsberger's chin rating of 48 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Medic has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
SemelsbergerMedic
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Semelsberger
Medic
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
6'1"
75"+
Reach
71"
33
Age
33
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
Semelsberger
Medic
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.1
72.8
41.6
Performance Avg
64.7
39
Quality of Victory
59
84
Momentum Score
100
Semelsberger
Medic
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.9
/ 10
10.0
/ 10
4.2
Style: Pressure
9.2
5.7
Style: Volume
1.4
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
8 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
21
0
Body
5
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
10Distance13
1Clinch7
0Ground6
Semelsberger
Medic
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.4
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Semelsberger
Medic
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
48
54
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/19 fights
Chin rating based on
11/16 fights
Semelsberger
Medic
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
84
100
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Semelsberger
Medic
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
100%
2
KO / TKO Wins
8
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Semelsberger
Medic
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
1.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
9.2
5.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.4
SemelsbergerMedic
Strike Zones
Semelsberger
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
26 absorbedMedic
Attacking
26 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Semelsberger targets the head (82% of attacks) — Medic absorbs 82% of strikes there
🎯Medic targets the head (81% of attacks) — Semelsberger absorbs 81% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Semelsberger
RND
Medic
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Semelsberger · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Charles RadtkeKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Preston ParsonsDecision
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · 2024-01
L · KO · R3
Uros MedicKO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
L · Dec · R3
Jeremiah WellsDecision
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes · 2023-04
W · Dec · R3
Jake MatthewsDecision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · 2022-12
Medic · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Daniel RodriguezKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez · 2026-08
W · KO · R1
Geoff NealKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
W · KO · R1
Muslim SalikhovKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · 2025-11
W · KO · R1
Gilbert UrbinaKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08
L · KO · R1
Punahele SorianoKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01