UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song
Seattle, USA
22 Feb 2025
Featherweight
VS
45%
Fili
55%
Costa
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:30
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Costa
This is a genuine toss-up — Fili at 45% vs Costa at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Costa has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Fili's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Costa has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Fili
Costa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'10"
74"+
Reach
71"
35
Age
+29
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Fili
Costa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
48.8
59.4
42.0
Performance Avg
53.2
35
Quality of Victory
42
100
Momentum Score
84
Fili
Costa
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.4
37%
Strike Accuracy
47%
4.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.3
4 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
3
3
Body
10
0
Leg
14
RangeRange
7Distance26
0Clinch1
0Ground0
Fili
Costa
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.3
1.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Fili
Costa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
64
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
7 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
26/38 fights
Chin rating based on
10/34 fights
Fili
Costa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
84
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Fili
Costa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
31%
57%
4
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
2
9
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Fili
Costa
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.3
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.3
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.9
3.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.1
6.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
FiliCosta
Strike Zones
Fili
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
27 absorbedCosta
Attacking
27 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Fili targets the head (57% of attacks) — Costa absorbs 57% of strikes there
🎯Costa targets the legs (52% of attacks) — Fili absorbs 52% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Fili
RND
Costa
0/0R00/0
Fili · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Costa · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Fili · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Jose DelgadoRating 7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Christian RodriguezRating 5.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08
L · Sub · R1
Melquizael CostaRating 2.7Submission
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · 2025-02
W · Dec · R3
Cub SwansonRating 5Decision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
L · KO · R1
Dan IgeRating 2.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · 2024-02
Costa · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
Arnold AllenRating 6.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · 2026-05
W · KO · R1
Dan IgeRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
W · KO · R1
Morgan CharriereRating 6.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · 2025-12
W · Dec · R3
Julian ErosaRating 4.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
W · Dec · R3
Christian RodriguezRating 5.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03