UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick
Lincoln, USA
25 Aug 2018
Bantamweight
VS
79%
Sandhagen
21%
Alcantara
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 1:01
Cory
Cory Sandhagen
18 – 6
5'11"70" reachSwitch34 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 64
IA
Iuri Alcantara
"Marajo"
35 – 10
Well-Rounded45 yrsSouthpaw71" reach5'9"
CFR 17

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Sandhagen

Sandhagen is a strong favourite at 79% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 47 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Sandhagen throws more volume but Alcantara connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Alcantara has a chin rating of 56 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Sandhagen
Alcantara
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'9"
70"
Reach
+71"
34+
Age
45
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
Sandhagen
Alcantara
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
64.2
16.9
53.8
Performance Avg
48.0
44
Quality of Victory
41
100
Momentum Score
49
Sandhagen
Alcantara
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.2
44%
Strike Accuracy
46%
5.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.2
5 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
22
Head
0
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance0
0Clinch0
18Ground0
Sandhagen
Alcantara
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.8
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Sandhagen
Alcantara
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
80
56
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/24 fights
Chin rating based on
18/45 fights
Sandhagen
Alcantara
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
49
Upcoming
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R2
Sandhagen
Alcantara
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
55%
50%
5
KO / TKO Wins
3
1
Submission Wins
2
5
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Sandhagen
Alcantara
Striking5.9 / 4.2Volume4.3 / 5.2Grappling1.6 / 2.8Wrestling1.1 / 2.0Submission0.9 / 2.0Pressure5.9 / 5.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.2
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.8
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
0.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
5.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.3
4.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.2
Sandhagen
Strike Zones
Alcantara
Sandhagen
Attacking
22HEAD0BODY0LEGS22 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 absorbed
Alcantara
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 landed
Absorbing
22HEAD0BODY0LEGS22 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Sandhagen targets the head (100% of attacks) — Alcantara absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Sandhagen
RND
Alcantara
0/0R00/0

Sandhagen · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.5
0105.2W5.2W6.1W4.5W4.5W2.5L5.1W5.0W5.6L7.0L5.7W5.3W5.7W6.8L6.2W6.8L2018-012019-082021-072023-082025-10
WinLossTrend

Alcantara · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0104.5W4.5W5.5L5.0W5.5L4.5W5.0W4.5W5.5L4.5W5.5L5.0W5.2W1.8L5.5L5.0W4.2L2011-082014-022016-012018-022018-08
WinLossTrend

Sandhagen · Last 5

Upcoming
Mario Bautista
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
L · Dec · R5
Merab DvalishviliRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
W · KO · R2
Deiveson FigueiredoRating 6.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
L · Dec · R5
Umar NurmagomedovRating 6.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
W · Dec · R5
Rob FontRating 5.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Font · 2023-08

Alcantara · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Cory SandhagenRating 4.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick · 2018-08
W · KO · R1
Joe SotoRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders · 2018-02
L · Dec · R3
Alejandro PerezRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Ortega · 2017-12
L · Sub · R1
Brian KelleherRating 1.8
Submission
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway · 2017-06
W · Sub · R2
Luke SandersRating 5.2
Submission
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2 · 2017-03

News & Media

Cory Sandhagen · Iuri Alcantara
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