UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira
Sao Paulo, Brazil
19 Nov 2016
Middleweight
VS
42%
Leites
58%
Jotko
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Jotko
This is a genuine toss-up — Leites at 42% vs Jotko at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Leites has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Striking split: Jotko throws more volume but Leites connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Leites's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Jotko has a chin rating of 28 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Leites
Jotko
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
6'1"
78"+
Reach
77"
44
Age
+36
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Leites
Jotko
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.4
22.7
48.8
Performance Avg
42.8
40
Quality of Victory
28
35
Momentum Score
60
Leites
Jotko
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
0.9
39%
Strike Accuracy
38%
2.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.2
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
16
0
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance2
0Clinch1
0Ground14
Leites
Jotko
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
4.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.2
2.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Leites
Jotko
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
28
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
7 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
21/37 fights
Chin rating based on
17/30 fights
Leites
Jotko
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
35
60
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Leites
Jotko
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
54%
9%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
5
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
10
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Leites
Jotko
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.2
4.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.2
2.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.5
3.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.6
4.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.6
LeitesJotko
Strike Zones
Leites
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedJotko
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Leites targets the head (100% of attacks) — Jotko absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Jotko targets the head (94% of attacks) — Leites absorbs 94% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Leites
RND
Jotko
0/0R00/0
Leites · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Jotko · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Leites · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Hector LombardRating 4.5Decision
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Jack HermanssonRating 4.9KO/TKO
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L · Dec · R3
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UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee · 2017-10
W · Dec · R3
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UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov · 2017-04
L · Dec · R3
Krzysztof JotkoRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira · 2016-11
Jotko · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Brendan AllenRating 2.8Submission
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