UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland
Sydney, Australia
9 Sept 2023
Light Heavyweight
VS
95%
Pedro
5%
Turkalj
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:12
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Pedro
Pedro is a strong favourite at 95% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 53 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Pedro has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 58 points.
Pedro has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Pedro's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Turkalj has a chin rating of 42 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Pedro
Turkalj
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
+6'4"
79"+
Reach
78"
34
Age
+29
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Pedro
Turkalj
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.6
3.0
56.6
Performance Avg
0.0
58
Quality of Victory
0
65
Momentum Score
0
Pedro
Turkalj
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
1.0
60%
Strike Accuracy
42%
7.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
4 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
3
1
Body
1
3
Leg
4
RangeRange
15Distance6
0Clinch2
1Ground0
Pedro
Turkalj
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.5
2.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Pedro
Turkalj
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
42
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/15 fights
Chin rating based on
4/12 fights
Pedro
Turkalj
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
65
0
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Pedro
Turkalj
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Pedro
Turkalj
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
1.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
PedroTurkalj
Strike Zones
Pedro
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTurkalj
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Pedro targets the head (75% of attacks) — Turkalj absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Turkalj targets the legs (50% of attacks) — Pedro absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Pedro
RND
Turkalj
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Pedro · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Turkalj · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Pedro · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Vitor PetrinoRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev · 2024-03
W · KO · R1
Anton TurkaljRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · 2023-09
L · Dec · R3
Modestas BukauskasRating 6.3Decision
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · 2023-02
W · KO · R1
Harry HunsuckerRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · 2022-08
W · KO · R1
Ike VillanuevaRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · 2022-04
Turkalj · Last 4
L · KO · R3
Ibo AslanRating 4.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · 2024-03
L · KO · R1
Tyson PedroRating 2.5KO/TKO
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · 2023-09
L · Dec · R3
Vitor PetrinoRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · 2023-03
L · Sub · R1
Jailton AlmeidaRating 3.3Submission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09