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All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Ellenberger
Omaha, USA
15 Feb 2012
Welterweight
VS
45%
Sanchez
55%
Ellenberger
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
DS
Diego Sanchez
"Nightmare"
31 – 13
5'10"72" reachSouthpaw44 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 13
JE
Jake Ellenberger
"The Juggernaut"
31 – 15
Well-Rounded4-fight slide41 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'9"
CFR 16
★ Official Result
Jake EllenbergerwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Diego Sanchez · UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Ellenberger

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Ellenberger
→
Actual result
Ellenberger wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Sanchez at 45% vs Ellenberger at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Ellenberger has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Sanchez's chin rating of 14 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Ellenberger has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
SanchezEllenberger
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Sanchez
Ellenberger
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'9"
72"+
Reach
71"
44
Age
+41
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Sanchez
Ellenberger
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
12.7
15.7
46.0
Performance Avg
45.7
37
Quality of Victory
45
20
Momentum Score
56
Sanchez
Ellenberger
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.1
1.2
39%
Strike Accuracy
42%
4.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.0
6 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
13
2
Body
4
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
10Distance18
0Clinch2
2Ground0
Sanchez
Ellenberger
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.0
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
1.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.5
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Sanchez
Ellenberger
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
14
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
4 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
7
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.6 stoppage
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
32/44 fights
Chin rating based on
21/46 fights
Sanchez
Ellenberger
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
56
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Sanchez
Ellenberger
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
32%
60%
6
KO / TKO Wins
5
0
Submission Wins
1
13
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Sanchez
Ellenberger
Striking4.3 / 6.0Volume6.2 / 3.4Grappling1.5 / 1.5Wrestling1.1 / 1.1Submission0.0 / 1.0Pressure4.0 / 5.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.0
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.5
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.0
4.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.6
6.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.4
Sanchez
Strike Zones
Ellenberger
Sanchez
Attacking
10HEAD2BODY0LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD4BODY3LEGS20 absorbed
Ellenberger
Attacking
13HEAD4BODY3LEGS20 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD2BODY0LEGS12 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Sanchez targets the head (83% of attacks) — Ellenberger absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Ellenberger targets the head (65% of attacks) — Sanchez absorbs 65% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Sanchez
RND
Ellenberger
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Sanchez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0105.0W5.2W4.5W4.5W4.5W5.0W5.5L5.5L5.0W5.5W4.5W5.0W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.5W5.5L4.5W5.5L5.5L4.5W5.5L4.9W1.5L4.5W1.5L1.9L4.5W5.8W6.3L5.1W6.5L2005-042008-032012-022016-112020-09
WinLossTrend

Ellenberger · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.0
0105.5L5.2W4.5W4.5W5.0W5.0W4.5W2.1L4.5W5.0W5.5L4.3L1.8L5.2W2.1L5.5L5.4W1.5L2.8L1.5L1.9L2009-092012-022014-112017-042018-08
WinLossTrend

Sanchez · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Jake MatthewsRating 6.5
Decision
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa · 2020-09
W · R3
Michel PereiraRating 5.1
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz · 2020-02
L · Dec · R3
Michael ChiesaRating 6.3
Decision
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos · 2019-07
W · KO · R2
Mickey GallRating 5.8
KO/TKO
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith · 2019-03
W · Dec · R3
Craig WhiteRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till · 2018-09

Ellenberger · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Bryan BarberenaRating 1.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick · 2018-08
L · KO · R1
Ben SaundersRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes · 2018-06
L · KO · R2
Mike PerryRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov · 2017-04
L · KO · R1
Jorge MasvidalRating 1.5
KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions Finale · 2016-12
W · KO · R1
Matt BrownRating 5.4
KO/TKO
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley · 2016-07

News & Media

Diego Sanchez · Jake Ellenberger
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