UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
4 May 2024
Middleweight
VS
59%
Pereira
41%
Potieria
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 0:54
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Pereira
This is a genuine toss-up — Pereira at 59% vs Potieria at 41% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Potieria throws more volume but Pereira connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Pereira's chin rating of 50 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Potieria has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Pereira
Potieria
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'3"
73"
Reach
+75"
32
Age
+29
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Pereira
Potieria
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
47.1
32.5
50.5
Performance Avg
35.5
40
Quality of Victory
43
39
Momentum Score
26
Pereira
Potieria
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
2.6
53%
Strike Accuracy
50%
3.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.5
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
0
2
Body
1
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
2Distance2
0Clinch0
4Ground0
Pereira
Potieria
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.6
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
2.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
3.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
3
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Pereira
Potieria
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
50
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/46 fights
Chin rating based on
8/28 fights
Pereira
Potieria
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
39
26
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R5
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Pereira
Potieria
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
50%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
3
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Pereira
Potieria
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.5
3.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
2.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
3.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.3
5.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.5
PereiraPotieria
Strike Zones
Pereira
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedPotieria
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Pereira targets the head (67% of attacks) — Potieria absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Potieria targets the body (50% of attacks) — Pereira absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Pereira
RND
Potieria
0/0R00/0
Pereira · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Potieria · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.1WinLossTrend
Pereira · Last 5
Upcoming
Shara MagomedovUFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · 2026-06
W · Dec · R3
Zach ReeseRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
L · KO · R1
Kyle DaukausRating 2.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Abus MagomedovRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
L · KO · R5
Anthony HernandezRating 5.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10
Potieria · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Marco TulioRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
L · Dec · R3
Cesar AlmeidaRating 6.6Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · Sub · R1
Michel PereiraRating 2.1Submission
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
W · Dec · R3
Robert BryczekRating 5.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · 2024-02
L · KO · R2
Rodolfo BellatoRating 4.5KO/TKO
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