UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gane
Las Vegas, USA
27 Feb 2021
Lightweight
VS
57%
Hernandez
43%
Moises
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Hernandez
This is a genuine toss-up — Hernandez at 57% vs Moises at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 13 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Hernandez throws more volume but Moises connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Hernandez's chin rating of 14 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Moises has a chin rating of 14 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Hernandez
Moises
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
5'9"
72"+
Reach
70"
33
Age
+31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Hernandez
Moises
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
52.9
39.7
47.4
Performance Avg
42.7
42
Quality of Victory
38
90
Momentum Score
39
Hernandez
Moises
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.8
0.9
43%
Strike Accuracy
44%
6.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.3
5 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
16
5
Body
1
4
Leg
3
RangeRange
14Distance20
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Hernandez
Moises
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.2
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Hernandez
Moises
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
14
14
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/27 fights
Chin rating based on
16/29 fights
Hernandez
Moises
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
90
39
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
Hernandez
Moises
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
50%
5
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
3
5
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Hernandez
Moises
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.3
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.2
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.8
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.0
HernandezMoises
Strike Zones
Hernandez
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedMoises
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Hernandez targets the head (36% of attacks) — Moises absorbs 36% of strikes there
🎯Moises targets the head (80% of attacks) — Hernandez absorbs 80% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Hernandez
RND
Moises
0/0R00/0
Hernandez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Moises · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Hernandez · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Rafa GarciaRating 6.3Decision
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