The Ultimate Fighter: Team Liddell vs Team Ortiz Finale
Las Vegas, USA
19 Jun 2010
Middleweight
VS
71%
Tavares
29%
Baczynski
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
SB
CFR 14
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Tavares
Tavares is a strong favourite at 71% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 21 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Baczynski has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Striking split: Baczynski throws more volume but Tavares connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Tavares's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Baczynski has a chin rating of 28 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Tavares
Baczynski
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'3"
74"
Reach
+75"
38+
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Tavares
Baczynski
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
35.6
14.3
40.1
Performance Avg
43.3
29
Quality of Victory
42
49
Momentum Score
33
Tavares
Baczynski
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.5
45%
Strike Accuracy
31%
2.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.9
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
8
2
Body
3
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance0
0Clinch5
2Ground6
Tavares
Baczynski
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.0
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.2
1.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Tavares
Baczynski
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
28
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
6
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.8 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
29/34 fights
Chin rating based on
11/34 fights
Tavares
Baczynski
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
49
33
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Tavares
Baczynski
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
13%
60%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
2
14
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Tavares
Baczynski
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.9
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.2
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.0
2.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.6
8.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.1
TavaresBaczynski
Strike Zones
Tavares
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedBaczynski
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Tavares targets the head (50% of attacks) — Baczynski absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Baczynski targets the head (73% of attacks) — Tavares absorbs 73% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Tavares
RND
Baczynski
0/0R00/0
Tavares · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Baczynski · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Tavares · Last 5
Upcoming
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