★ Championship Bout · Lightweight
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
Las Vegas, USA
6 Oct 2018
Lightweight
VS
26%
Nurmagomedov
74%
McGregor
Win Probability
Submission
Round 4 · 3:03
KN
Khabib Nurmagomedov
"The Eagle"
29 – 0
5'10"70" reachOrthodox37 yrs13-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 26
Conor
Conor McGregor
"The Notorious"
22 – 6
Knockout Artist2-fight slide37 yrsSouthpaw74" reach5'9"
CFR 74

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: McGregor

McGregor is a strong favourite at 74% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 49 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

McGregor has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 20 points.

McGregor has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

McGregor has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Nurmagomedov
McGregor
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'9"
70"
Reach
+74"
37
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Nurmagomedov
McGregor
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
25.9
74.4
68.2
Performance Avg
68.9
47
Quality of Victory
67
100
Momentum Score
100
Nurmagomedov
McGregor
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
2.0
50%
Strike Accuracy
56%
3.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
9.4
2 KOs
KO Finishes
8 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
3
1
Body
2
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
5Distance6
0Clinch0
2Ground0
Nurmagomedov
McGregor
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
4.2
/ 10
0.5
/ 10
2.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.3
3.9
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
5
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Nurmagomedov
McGregor
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
100
52
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
2
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/29 fights
Chin rating based on
15/28 fights
Nurmagomedov
McGregor
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
13-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R4
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
L · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R4
Nurmagomedov
McGregor
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
54%
80%
2
KO / TKO Wins
8
5
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Nurmagomedov
McGregor
Striking3.5 / 9.4Volume5.7 / 3.0Grappling4.2 / 0.5Wrestling2.9 / 0.3Submission3.9 / 0.0Pressure6.8 / 7.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.4
4.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.5
2.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.3
3.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.7
5.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.0
Nurmagomedov
Strike Zones
McGregor
Nurmagomedov
Attacking
6HEAD1BODY0LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD2BODY1LEGS6 absorbed
McGregor
Attacking
3HEAD2BODY1LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD1BODY0LEGS7 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Nurmagomedov targets the head (86% of attacks) — McGregor absorbs 86% of strikes there
🎯McGregor targets the head (50% of attacks) — Nurmagomedov absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Nurmagomedov
RND
McGregor
0/0R00/0

Nurmagomedov · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.5W4.5W5.0W4.5W4.5W4.7W5.2W5.6W5.0W4.5W7.3W6.6W6.7W2012-012013-092017-122020-10
WinLossTrend

McGregor · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.0W5.6W5.0W6.3W5.1W5.1W5.5W2.1L4.5W5.1W3.4L5.0W3.4L5.3L2013-042015-012016-082021-012021-07
WinLossTrend

Nurmagomedov · Last 5

W · Sub · R2
Justin GaethjeRating 6.7
Submission
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · 2020-10
W · Sub · R3
Dustin PoirierRating 6.6
Submission
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier · 2019-09
W · Sub · R4
Conor McGregorRating 7.3
Submission
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · 2018-10
W · Dec · R5
Al IaquintaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta · 2018-04
W · Dec · R3
Edson BarbozaRating 5
Decision
UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm · 2017-12

McGregor · Last 5

Upcoming
Max Holloway
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
L · R1
Dustin PoirierRating 5.3
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · 2021-07
L · KO · R2
Dustin PoirierRating 3.4
KO/TKO
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor · 2021-01
W · KO · R1
Donald CerroneRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · 2020-01
L · Sub · R4
Khabib NurmagomedovRating 3.4
Submission
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · 2018-10

News & Media

Khabib Nurmagomedov · Conor McGregor
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