METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
★ Championship Bout · Lightweight
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
Las Vegas, USA
6 Oct 2018
Lightweight
VS
26%
Nurmagomedov
74%
McGregor
Win Probability
Submission
Round 4 · 3:03
KN
CFR 26
★ Official Result
Khabib NurmagomedovwinsSubmissionR4 · 3:03
def. Conor McGregor · UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
McGregor
→
Actual result
Nurmagomedov wins
Submission · R4
Pre-fight analysis
McGregor is a strong favourite at 74% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 49 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
McGregor has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 20 points.
McGregor has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
McGregor has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
NurmagomedovMcGregor
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Nurmagomedov
McGregor
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'9"
70"
Reach
+74"
37+
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Nurmagomedov
McGregor
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
25.9
74.4
68.2
Performance Avg
68.9
47
Quality of Victory
67
100
Momentum Score
100
Nurmagomedov
McGregor
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.1
2.0
50%
Strike Accuracy
56%
3.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
9.4
2 KOs
KO Finishes
8 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
3
1
Body
2
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
5Distance6
0Clinch0
2Ground0
Nurmagomedov
McGregor
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.2
/ 10
0.5
/ 10
2.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.3
3.9
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
5
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Nurmagomedov
McGregor
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
100
52
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
2
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/29 fights
Chin rating based on
15/28 fights
Nurmagomedov
McGregor
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
13-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R4
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
L · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R4
Nurmagomedov
McGregor
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
54%
80%
2
KO / TKO Wins
8
5
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Nurmagomedov
McGregor
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.4
4.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.5
2.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.3
3.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.7
5.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.0
NurmagomedovMcGregor
Strike Zones
Nurmagomedov
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedMcGregor
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Nurmagomedov targets the head (86% of attacks) — McGregor absorbs 86% of strikes there
🎯McGregor targets the head (50% of attacks) — Nurmagomedov absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Nurmagomedov
RND
McGregor
0/0R00/0
Nurmagomedov · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
McGregor · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Nurmagomedov · Last 5
W · Sub · R2
Justin GaethjeRating 6.7Submission
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · 2020-10
W · Sub · R3
Dustin PoirierRating 6.6Submission
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier · 2019-09
W · Sub · R4
Conor McGregorRating 7.3Submission
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · 2018-10
W · Dec · R5
Al IaquintaRating 4.5Decision
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta · 2018-04
W · Dec · R3
Edson BarbozaRating 5Decision
UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm · 2017-12
McGregor · Last 5
Upcoming
Max HollowayUFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
L · R1
Dustin PoirierRating 5.3UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · 2021-07
L · KO · R2
Dustin PoirierRating 3.4KO/TKO
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor · 2021-01
W · KO · R1
Donald CerroneRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · 2020-01
L · Sub · R4
Khabib NurmagomedovRating 3.4Submission
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · 2018-10